THL - Tourism Holdings

[winner69]

DB has NTA @ 1.37 ... SP currently .80 !!!

Review of past trends following recessions says that THL bounces back pretty darn quick with just one very sucky year, followed by pickup to near half-to-normal sales followed the next year by a return to the status quo. This is the time to bail as THL never seem to grow all that much following the two years it takes to get back on track.

You saying THL is a SELL then Belg

At 80 cents against a book value of $1.85 the market is already saying that THL will continue it value destruction into the future ... whats changed, THL has never made enought to cover its cost of capital anyway

Interesting comments about their past sales performance .... the chart below shows what has happened over the years .... one thing noticable is that they don't seem to recover much after big drops .... ie almost a long slow miserable decline (or flat at best) .... and one really can't blame recent global events for current performance

So it all comes down to what margin they make on the sales they do make .... Munros stuffed last year and if they fix that you would expect to see $10=$15m NPAT a base going forward (still value destruction territory) which would give some hope of a shareprice around $1.30-$1.50 sometime.

Hey nearly talked myself into buying .... but on principle i don't like investing in -

- value destroyers (ie not covering cost of capital)
- companies that can't seem to grow the revenues line when they should
- companies that seem to lurch from one disaster to another
- companies who don't seem to have any pricing power

But then again I could forget that and go for a short to medium term trade based on TA

You not selling Belg .... wouldn't want you to push down the price quitting your holding