IFT - Infratil

[buns]

Well straight off the bat (my 15min looks at IFT) - I like this story.

Yes the Euro airports make a loss, but we all have one of them in our PF. Also it isn’t very material when looking at the big picture. About -$11m EBITDAF on $443m, and about $12m of capex on $475. The fee’s I haven’t looked at, but at this stage don’t think are an issue. I get the feeling they are just an annoyance to investors, but they mean very little in the big picture and only distract you from what are some strong financials. These fee's are not going away, and are paid depending on market cap, so investors in a way should be please to see the fees go up.

Normalised EBITDF up 22% to $443m, and guidance of a 7% uplift in FY12 to $475m (middle of range)

Capex/Investing from $475m down to $200m. And after removing the Shell acquisition it is still $65m down/good on FY11 or 14%. You could say that is just Wgtn airport being finished, but no, as this is more than offset by the upgrade to NZ bus in FY12.

Notional FCF (normalised for shell aq) of $178m in FY11 (-32m inc Shell), now $275m in FY12 – A 54% uplift in nFCF! Interest costs only rising $20m. With big investment in Wgtn airport, Shell, NZ Bus going into FY13 I doubt this earnings will deter off to much with capex only to fall (from logic)..

Bar another acquisition you will be getting another (probably larger) increase in dividend come FY12 and again in FY13.

Will look at the BS later in the week, and come up with a valuation.