Now the guessing game commences, what's their sustainable dividend going forward ?
No takers ?

Okay I'll speculate. IIRC they're paying out about 80% of free cash flow so my guess seeing as they stated in the IPO documentation that they wanted to grow divvy's inline with inflation and seeing as inflation is basically zero my guess is notwithstanding lower after tax profit this year, (mid point of their guidance range is $90M = 9 cps) they'll try and maintain that 16 cps going forward by ramping up the pay-out ratio to whatever percentage of free cash flow it needs to be to save face and maintain 16 cps.

In the meantime however the lower forecasted profit exacerbates the aforementioned imputation issue and if they can maintain $90m going forward, (I am really not sure if they can or not) if we ignore short term creative strategies to impute as much as they can in the medium term they will only be able to impute 9 cents of the forecast 16 cps or 56.25% imputation.

The trusty abacus therefore calculates their gross yield at 16 / .8425, (note the new higher denominator level reflecting lower medium term imputation credit) = 18.99 cps gross.

This suggests someone like myself looking to get a 10% gross return, (to compensate for no growth, Tiwai point risk and the fact that high divvy's are only possible till Kupe runs out in 2027 ?) would want to see the price at $1.90 before considering re-entry.

Thoughts folks ?