Quote Originally Posted by Chaowee88 View Post
They'll be lucky to maintain any divie at the rate their going..

Interest expense makes up approx 5% of revenue... Conservatively financed this is not..

Stay away, risk and reward really does not stack well with this company.

Much better dividend paying companies who a conservatively financed out there.
Well - certainly not a company for the faint-hearted - and I agree, if they are not careful with their leverage, than they might go down the gurgler.

However - last half year they (just) could afford to pay the interest and their other bills (including some unexpected). They said that they expect the second half to be (somewhat better). So - unless they forgot to disclose that something in their outlook has changed, I expect them to come back for the full year with something like 5 cents EPS (well - better than naught and less than ten) ... and hopefully a positive outlook.

At this stage it certainly looks like the bears still have it (though quite light trading ...) - it is probably more the uncertainly and no news which makes still investors jump the ship. I believe as well that we see some change of investors (remember - this share used to be tooted by a number of brokers as ideal retirement stock with a reliable and safe dividend - Cough) from dividend seekers to growth investors.

At this stage I am not aware of any material information which should move the SP into any direction - what we currently see is just the human traits of fear and greed in action. And hey - Warren Buffet once said "be greedy when others are fearful - and be fearful when others are greedy".

So again - they might just roll up their toes nails (and I agree, this is a possibility, if they don't find a way to compensate for losing valuable satellite customers by swapping them to less attractive fiber customers), but they might as well do a CNU on us - and more than double their (current) SP over the next 12 months or whatever. I certainly do still see potential, however whether you rate their growth potential as smaller or larger as their risks - this is up to everybody's individual perception and judgement.

What I am not any longer certain is whether the current board is best equipped to deal with the situation. Maybe some of the larger owners want to consider whether we nominate next time a director better equipped to balance against a David Ware? I still think that David adds value to the board (and management), but I don't feel comfortable with him collecting an increasing bunch of lap dogs around himself, and I don't see anybody in the current board asking the hard questions.

Discl: own some (and at this stage the worst performing share in my portfolio); DYOR