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Originally Posted by myles
I'm not sure that it is... The graph below suggests something quite different:
Retail Spending.jpg
Source: https://www.stats.govt.nz/informatio...tions-may-2018
It has been shown that P2P lending follows credit card spending etc... So perhaps it is just a significant lull in loans. No doubt Harmoney have obligations to their wholesale 'partners', so the low availability of loans for retail investors may just be due to a lack of 'excess' loans. [All speculation...]
Intriguing. Although don't trust one offs counter trend, could be anything from data collection, to a one off skewing the comparative month on the other end. Also completely rubbish weather in April. Lets see what June brings. Next month there are changes to Working for Families - likely to stimulate further credit growth.
I use the Household Balance sheet, Consumer Loans. https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/c22. Which released data shows continued steady credit growth from early 2014 through to current. Mar18 (16.4b) being 7% above Mar17 (15.3b).
Another good proxy is new motor vehicle sales https://www.mia.org.nz/Sales-Data/Vehicle-Sales. Which is still cracking on superbly. I just do not believe their is anything fundamentally different in credit, all seems to be typical mid/late cycle behaviour.
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