Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
No - clearly stated, retail margin pressure = ~ $50m downgrade effect and refinery margin pressure ~ $10m impact.
Z have come out swinging in terms of their position regarding the draft fuel report. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...992/307703.pdf
A very brief skim read, (sorry don't have any more time today than that) would tend to indicate Z have conceded some change in key area's is needed including wholesale fuel arrangements.

As stated last week, I suspect there is more to come from retail margin pressure and Govt regulatory pressure than what has already been provided for in the $60m downgrade. Further, the commercial effect of any ground that ZEL may have conceded in their submission is yet to make itself apparent in lower profits going forward.

More here http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/2...uel-reporthtml
I agree, this squeeze may just be the beginning. Margins must have been high for the last few years. How could the entrance of new players be explained otherwise?

So for now living with a big mistake - 1253 shares at 6.54 - but margins can only go so low. The question is how low?
The Com Com reckons margins should come closer to a 8.3% return on cost of capital. Z is ranking at 23%. So somewhere in there is a point where Z becomes an attractive buy.