Is a Bear Market starting to play out on the NZX ?

[Aaron]

Actually a lot less than the normal strains but the scare mongers conveniently evade that fact.

My record on predicting the next bear market should be well known so I have no idea if this is “the big one” but you can guess how I voted.

Where are you getting your numbers from Schrodinger and Couta?
My understanding was that the mortality rate for the flu was about .1%. Deaths are much higher because just about everyone gets the flu at least once a year. Coronavirus so far sounds like it has a 2% mortality rate. (Spanish flu might have been about 2%)

That is 1 death per 1,000 infections for the flu and 20 deaths per 1,000 infections for Coronavirus.

Interesting Lance O’Sullivan retracted his initial comments regarding Coronavirus.

On the plus side it may have kicked off a bear market and we may have another once in a lifetime investing opportunity, although we will still not know where the bottom is.

Also it has been great for climate change so far and national superannuation in NZ might become much more affordable for NZ over the next couple of years.

I should not make light of something that has the potential to be catastrophic (I appreciate “catastrophic” is much more emotive than “bad” but it sounded better in the sentence.)

As always no one knows what the future holds and we can only hope that this turns out to be like SARS or Y2K and I pick the exact bottom of the next bear market.

If anyone can see the future could you email me Saturday’s lotto numbers and tell me what level the NZX will hit bottom if this is a bear market.