Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
Current share price $4.44 seems about right if no takeover on cards.

Maybe this a way to get a fair expected values target price for year end -

40% chance of takeover at $6.25 (mid point $6.00 to $6.50 - I just love midpoints)
10% chance of market love taking it $5.00
30% chance price hangs around $4.50
20% chance of price falling to $4.00

So all up ‘expected return’ of $5.15 covering all bases

Suppose worth while staying on board and hoping like hell we get $6.50 sooner than later
Updated this after recent events

10% chance of takeover at $6.25 (mid point $6.00 to $6.50 - I just love midpoints)
10% chance of market love taking it $5.00
30% chance price hangs around $4.40
50% chance of price falling to $3.60

‘Expected’ target price in a years time $4.25

BaaBaa mentions opportunity cost ...should be considered as well

Maybe the mantra is now MET, heads you might win, tails you might lose a bit ....hmmm