Contact Energy - CEN Chart

[Snoopy]

The short answer is I think the 'thin air capital' adjustment to my valuation to my base price of $5.90 (post 1841) is still valid. I also believe my revised 'thin air capital' multiplication factor of 1.271 (post 1889) is valid.

My current Contact Energy 'fair value' share price valuation is now: $5.90 x 1.271 = $7.50 (up from the $7.42 you referenced before).

With the share closing at $7.20, CEN is therefore 'modestly undervalued' (by 4%). I prefer to buy my shares at a bigger discount to fair value than that. And I notice the closing offer price is still $7.55 (above fair value).

I wouldn't be surprised to see the share price bounce on Monday. But we shall see!

One more comment on where my investment style differs from some of my fellow CEN shareholders. I don't worry too much about even reading those monthly operational reports. I know they can be a pointer as to whether a year is going well or not, and maybe whether a special or increased dividend might be paid . But as long as the dividend policy does not change, I think many of these seasonal adjustments eventually average out. IOW they make no difference to the big picture of the long term investor. And long term I am. I bought my initial CEN holding at float time over twenty years ago, (although I do admit most of my holding has been acquired far more recently than that). Still I have never sold any. And as long as they keep satisfying my long term income target from my shareholding I doubt if I ever will!

SNOOPY