Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post
Make of this as you will
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SP...y+152+%28EN%29
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So are we currently in a bear market?
How the Fed's Rate Hikes Affect the Market (or Not)
- Based on the four rules above, there's a high probability that we are not in a bear market.
- Since I've uploaded this post, the market has bounced swiftly off the 100 moving average on the weekly.
- Just as the covid-induced drop of March 2020 turned out to be a 'buy the dip' opportunity, as opposed to the beginning of a bear market, the sharp correction we have seen since the beginning of this year goes against the first rule of the bear market.
- It’s critical not to call a bear market falsely, and this is a huge mistake that a lot of people make.
- If the market is just going through a correction (a short, sentiment-driven downturn of -10% to -20%), you’re better off riding through it and maintaining your portfolio.
- It is impossible to accurately and consistently time market corrections because of the way they behave.
- A correction can start for any reason or no reason. So if you believe that the economy is strong, and the fundamentals of the company you invest in remain solid, there's no need to sell off your holdings, especially when your actions are motivated by fear.

Conclusion
Bull market corrections are not fun, but it's important as an investor for you to be able to distinguish bear markets/recessions from bull market corrections. Choosing to undertake a bear market investment strategy and go defensive should be rare and shouldn’t be done by gut feel or by your neighbor’s opinion. Exiting the market is among the biggest investment risks you can take—if you’re wrong and you have a need for portfolio growth, missing bull market returns can be extremely costly."
IMO it really doesn't matter where the market is at. To the individual investor, they really only have 2 paths to choose. One, go the diversification way in buying the index ETF funds like the S&P500. The other way is to do the Buffet / Munger way by picking 5 or so companies that will stand the test of time through thick or thin.

While we have such investment rules - why no mention about how 'active managed' funds operate? I mean after all if the individual has no chance of reliably timing the market, then why are these fund managers are so gung ho at doing it (or claiming they consistently do it) ? As Buffet and Munger has said, "No skin on their game" - they have nothing to lose by charging mgt admin fees on the funds they manage. It's the corruption I see in industry but none of the gov'ts will address it.

Every once in a while I get a laugh watching Buffet spew his rant on these managed funds back in 2016. Those that have lots of money, generally people who are well endowed with wealth, have no inclination to buying the index ETF but rather, end up paying enormous fees to fund managers. He would be invited by gov't pension funds and he would show them step by step the math and what happens... and at the end they still end up having to pay the 'helpers' for providing sub-par returns. These professional money managers need to charge a fee for their existence. They can't obviously advise you to just buy the S&P500 ETF and wait 50 years... that's not how fund managers get rich. And they always like to tweak things around from year to year (or else they would look like they don't know what they're doing) - so they claim when to buy low and when to sell high, or when to be in this sector or as you mentioned above, if we are in a bear market or in a bull market kind of deal.