Quote Originally Posted by Walter View Post
Dassets, isn't part of your thesis that Cybertruck will not sell in any quantity? Who has an 80,000 Cybertruck forecast for next year? Bulls like James Stephenson forecast about 30,000 next year and expect Tesla to make a loss on them.
Think I saw the 80T estimate via Patreon - Troy Teslike, in a spreadsheet. The number was the production forecast but I cannot remember whether it was Troy's forecast that he was downgrading or it was an estimate of average analyst forecast views for 2023. My "thesis" supporting my short strategy doesn't factor in Cybertruck as a positive or negative, just assumes neutral. Tesla gets there on other factors for me. But my comment on sales for Cybertruck is only about sales numbers for next year.

I don't take much from the report in the last day about China deliveries dropping to 71,704 cars from its Shanghai plant from a record high of 83,135 in September, Bloomberg commenting on CPCA data. I want to see more detail on that.

A big problem is European markets. I subscribe to Matt Gasnier's sales site. Tesla is not getting traction in the main Euro markets(October country data being released now, France, Spain, Netherlands out already), in fact absolute sales numbers seem to be falling sept YTD year on year. My reservation over this data is the chunky deliveries that do occur. But for Tesla to get anywhere near its global ambitions on sales growth Europe has to be part of it. It just isn't happening at the pace it needs. Fine before when there wasn't competition but there is now and others are selling. Tesla is letting competition get meaningful market share. So the pie sure is getting bigger but Tesla is not getting the slice it needs to support its "targets" or valuation implied sales. I don't hate or love Tesla. I am just looking at it as a business BTW