Greenfern

[ValueNZ]

No, and that is a question I always ask anyone who states categorically that a share price is going to go down.

I am very confident that this thing will blow up but I am not confident in the course it will take and if I took a short position it could be me that blows up first.

I have never shorted anything in my life and don't intend to start. I'm not sure how anyone even could do it with this small company in NZ and not sure the borrow cost or mechanism etc.

Now if someone offered to lend me their shares at say 7% for 5 years and I wasn't subject to margin and could pay back their shares anytime then I would do it.

I know of so many formerly great investors who have blown themselves up trying to short and many more who have been unsuccessful that it hold no appeal to me, one of Einhorn's recent letters highlighting their short struggles over the last few years is key reading. The best in the world with massive resources still can't make money.

Look at the Gamestop saga... Shorting is a lot about Ego as well and SailorRob on Sharetrader has a lot of Ego, but when it comes to investing he has none at all. As that is what will kill you.

So if you take a short position in Greenfern and they announce a new contract and strategic offshore investor or any manner of other things that could happen and suddenly you are up for potentially unlimited losses. Over time I would have full confidence I am right but over the short term I could blow up.

As Buffett constantly hammers home, you have to be able to handle the events that have never happened before or the 1/100 year events with ease and stay in the game.

I will never expose myself to potentially unlimited losses and while the chances are so remote it's virtually impossible, technically Greenfern can go to $1 a share or more overnight.

A great case study is to look at what happened to Daniel Gladis in the GFC and how it happened.

Thanks, I knew this was quite likely to be your answer. I feel similarly about shorting and option contracts in general. What happened with Gamestop was certainly crazy and even today it trades 24x higher than it did in 2020.

I'll take a look into what happened to Daniel Gladis during the GFC since I'm unaware of what happened there.

[shareman]

And another one SailorRob, Greenfern has this division called "GFI Thailand", basically one of the managers just went on a piss trip to Thailand to see his mate (paid for by shareholders of course)!

They blamed a halt of progress on the NZ Govt, whatever happened to the Thailand division ! Like most things with Greenfern, tumbleweed,

Greenfern is littered with stories like this

[Airw0lf]

No, and that is a question I always ask anyone who states categorically that a share price is going to go down.I am very confident that this thing will blow up but I am not confident in the course it will take and if I took a short position it could be me that blows up first. I have never shorted anything in my life and don't intend to start. I'm not sure how anyone even could do it with this small company in NZ and not sure the borrow cost or mechanism etc.Now if someone offered to lend me their shares at say 7% for 5 years and I wasn't subject to margin and could pay back their shares anytime then I would do it.I know of so many formerly great investors who have blown themselves up trying to short and many more who have been unsuccessful that it hold no appeal to me, one of Einhorn's recent letters highlighting their short struggles over the last few years is key reading. The best in the world with massive resources still can't make money.Look at the Gamestop saga... Shorting is a lot about Ego as well and SailorRob on Sharetrader has a lot of Ego, but when it comes to investing he has none at all. As that is what will kill you. So if you take a short position in Greenfern and they announce a new contract and strategic offshore investor or any manner of other things that could happen and suddenly you are up for potentially unlimited losses. Over time I would have full confidence I am right but over the short term I could blow up.As Buffett constantly hammers home, you have to be able to handle the events that have never happened before or the 1/100 year events with ease and stay in the game.I will never expose myself to potentially unlimited losses and while the chances are so remote it's virtually impossible, technically Greenfern can go to $1 a share or more overnight.A great case study is to look at what happened to Daniel Gladis in the GFC and how it happened.

Another case study is Herbalife - it's basically a terrible pyramid scheme and Pershing Square took a massive short position against it and provided a lot of evidence as to how Herbalife was a pyramid scheme. They expected regulators to rub out the company. Instead they just settled in cash and kept on going. Share price kept going up.

[SailorRob]

Another case study is Herbalife - it's basically a terrible pyramid scheme and Pershing Square took a massive short position against it and provided a lot of evidence as to how Herbalife was a pyramid scheme. They expected regulators to rub out the company. Instead they just settled in cash and kept on going. Share price kept going up.

Exactly and only today I was listening to Drukenmiller, he's never had a down year in 30 years and is truly a world class legend. Said he thinks he may have lost money shorting in total.

[Baa_Baa]

Exactly and only today I was listening to Drukenmiller, he's never had a down year in 30 years and is truly a world class legend. Said he thinks he may have lost money shorting in total.

He's certainly a legend but, do you think it's actually a question that he "may have lost money"? Surely he would know, being a legend. Legends know when they make or lose money, so for sure, he lost on some of his short bets.

This stuff is for traders, only focused on market sentiment, it works when it does, and doesn't work when it goes bad. Your stops get hit or a margin call comes in, boom, your trade is defunct, same as going long a trade. This is not 'investing', it is trading, which is a whole different thing, and shorting is not very familiar to NZ traders as placing a short is not easy, or readily accessible.

Shorting companies shares though, can be very profitable and adds to market liquidity, but it's understandable that many don't 'get it' or want to take the risk of a short trade, especially on leverage, but bascially it's just betting on the bear side of an investment rather than the bull side.

It has nothing to do with investing, it's just playing the market.

[SailorRob]

He's certainly a legend but, do you think it's actually a question that he "may have lost money"? Surely he would know, being a legend. Legends know when they make or lose money, so for sure, he lost on some of his short bets.

This stuff is for traders, only focused on market sentiment, it works when it does, and doesn't work when it goes bad. Your stops get hit or a margin call comes in, boom, your trade is defunct, same as going long a trade. This is not 'investing', it is trading, which is a whole different thing, and shorting is not very familiar to NZ traders as placing a short is not easy, or readily accessible.

Shorting companies shares though, can be very profitable and adds to market liquidity, but it's understandable that many don't 'get it' or want to take the risk of a short trade, especially on leverage, but bascially it's just betting on the bear side of an investment rather than the bull side.

It has nothing to do with investing, it's just playing the market.

Yeah, I believe the intent of what he said as he always seems honest about when he loses (same convo talked about blowing up billions in 3 weeks in dotcom)

And one of few who says he doesn't know whats going to happen, always points out when he was wrong etc..

So I put it down to him knowing his exact returns yes, but maybe not each year exactly what they were made up of and so in aggregate gun to his head he cant say if he's net made or lost shorting.

He absolutely has lost on some of them, he said so, but what he meant is that he's lost overall (over 30 years).

[shareman]

When assessing Greenfern, these are the most important numbers, net operating cashflow:

2019 ($74,000)
2020 ($350,000)
2021 ($1,020,000)
2022 ($2,078,193)
2023 ($1,379,698)

So every year they lose shareholders cash and are actually getting better at it, Greenfern is a shocker

[winner69]

When assessing Greenfern, these are the most important numbers, net operating cashflow:

2019 ($74,000)
2020 ($350,000)
2021 ($1,020,000)
2022 ($2,078,193)
2023 ($1,379,698)

So every year they lose shareholders cash and are actually getting better at it, Greenfern is a shocker

And spend just as much again on capex (investments)

[winner69]

I note they use Bartercard …….how cute

[Dlownz]

I saw a post come up on the sharesies site about greenfern. Someone calling sharesies out for promoting a scam. It was gone the next day 🤔