Black Monday

[BlackPeter]

BP

Look at your returns and you will understand what I'm saying. I understand these companies all too well.

If you retain earnings and then use them like your Labour government... you will have low PE's old boy.

I am quite happy with my returns, thanks for asking.

Clearly - you have no clue, but cheers for entertaining us.

[Valuegrowth]

Be fearful when others are greedy. Markets are more fragile than we think. I'm really fearful to buy overvalued assets.

Appreciated Hoops. Amongst other things there is likely an earnings resistance coming up next few quarters. Markets currently overbought.

[winner69]

BP

Look at your returns and you will understand what I'm saying. I understand these companies all too well.

If you retain earnings and then use them like your Labour government... you will have low PE's old boy.

SailorRob ….you are either not listening (understanding) to what BlackPeter is saying or your maths are completely stuffed up……..and bring Greenwald into the discussion enough said.

[alokdhir]

Like Tom Lee said on CNBC ...U shud be worried about crowded trades ...eventually stampede happens in those trades ...Cash / Fixed income is still a very crowded trade so need be careful ...Stocks are not in favour and most minds are still very bearish ...thus they shud do alright . Brighter future ahead for stocks

[causecelebre]

A16Z (Marc Adreeesen) wrote and excellent post on AI is worth a read https://a16z.com/2023/06/06/ai-will-save-the-world/ particularly around AI and jobs and his description of the Lump of Labour fallacy

[SailorRob]

SailorRob ….you are either not listening (understanding) to what BlackPeter is saying or your maths are completely stuffed up……..and bring Greenwald into the discussion enough said.

I understand perfectly well, but one needs to have an exceptionally good understanding of what true returns on capital are for these enterprises in order to understand them. You need to forensically trace each and every dollar over a period of 10 to 15 years and determine what true free cash generating capacity they have and what growth in that capacity there is. You don't eat earnings, just an accounting entry.

If Blackpeter has the ability to analyse these cash flows and indeed realise that the market is discounting them wrong in aggregate and he then expresses his view in market purchases from less knowing sellers, then Blackpeter will have long term investment returns that are greater than the market and perhaps significantly so.

So why then does he not?

[BlackPeter]

I understand perfectly well, but one needs to have an exceptionally good understanding of what true returns on capital are for these enterprises in order to understand them. You need to forensically trace each and every dollar over a period of 10 to 15 years and determine what true free cash generating capacity they have and what growth in that capacity there is. You don't eat earnings, just an accounting entry.

If Blackpeter has the ability to analyse these cash flows and indeed realise that the market is discounting them wrong in aggregate and he then expresses his view in market purchases from less knowing sellers, then Blackpeter will have long term investment returns that are greater than the market and perhaps significantly so.

So why then does he not?

Absolute garbage, apart from you having no idea what my returns are. Before you start again you kindergarten bullying - they are none of your business either.

Past data analysis will never give you outstanding future returns ... given that past data analysis gives you just that - a picture of the past, not a picture of the future.

[Snow Leopard]

I understand perfectly well, but one needs to have an exceptionally good understanding of what true returns on capital are for these enterprises in order to understand them. You need to forensically trace each and every dollar over a period of 10 to 15 years and determine what true free cash generating capacity they have and what growth in that capacity there is. You don't eat earnings, just an accounting entry....

Pretentious, Moi?

[winner69]

Pretentious, Moi?

Doubt whether this guru Bruce Greenwald would agree snowie

[SailorRob]

Absolute garbage, apart from you having no idea what my returns are. Before you start again you kindergarten bullying - they are none of your business either.

Past data analysis will never give you outstanding future returns ... given that past data analysis gives you just that - a picture of the past, not a picture of the future.

Exactly.

You cannot judge a man with 50 violent criminal convictions.

All in his past.

His future behavior and his returns on capital, decisions and ability is in no way related to his past actions.

I have a extremely good idea of what your returns are from having read your posts over the years. They are close to the average investor returns as highlighted by JP Morgan.