KMD - Kathmandu

[winner69]

Alan Gray Group buying a few more....

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...916/396330.pdf

They love these cheap stocks on NZX eh .... more Sky City the other day

[Rawz]

What does the TA gurus think of the chart? My knowledge is limited but from what I can see it’s trading in a range of sorts and all it needs is a positive announcement to break out? Or the reverse I guess

[Sideshow Bob]

They love these cheap stocks on NZX eh .... more Sky City the other day

Dual listed - they might be buying cheap stocks on the ASX!!

[winner69]

F23 going to be record breaking year ….that’s pretty good

Should give share price a much needed boost …even if only driven by relief things aren’t bad

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...604/398360.pdf

[BlackPeter]

F23 going to be record breaking year ….that’s pretty good

Should give share price a much needed boost …even if only driven by relief things aren’t bad

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...604/398360.pdf

Markets are funny, aren't they? But yes, they probably noticed that while correct about the record, it still was some sort of downgrade of revenue (compared to the analyst expectations), and "underlying" EBITDA is a bit difficult to assess given that they don't tell us what's above the water :

Still - they say margins are in line with last year, which means at least no deterioration on the earning side. Or does it? They said gross margins resilient, didn't they ?

[Rawz]

F23 going to be record breaking year ….that’s pretty good

Should give share price a much needed boost …even if only driven by relief things aren’t bad

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...604/398360.pdf

when you say boost.. you mean thrusters in reverse type boost?

SP down 5.8%

[Rawz]

Retail.. all retail struggling

So KMD will do over a billion in sales and make maybe $39m. whats the point?

[BlackPeter]

Retail.. all retail struggling

So KMD will do over a billion in sales and make maybe $39m. whats the point?

OK - admittedly the announcement is somewhat fuzzy, and yes, your numbers look right.

But first lets check with last years report to put it into perspective, shall we?

Last years Gross margin was 58.9%. This is not bad, and they say that the margin this year will be in line with that.

Their revenue last year was $980m, this year they predict $1100m. More than 10% growth, not too bad either.

Underlying EBITDA last year was $92m. This year they expect it in the vicinity of $105m ... $110m (i.e. growing inline or even a bit faster than revenue, which is good).

Last years EBITDA resulted in an underlying NPAT of $36.2m. Admittedly - we don't know about the extras, but for starters I would expect their NPAT this year slightly above $40m.

So yes, Net margins are thin ... but then, they are in retail - and at the end, what is the problem?

From an investors perspective - you can currently buy a 6 cent dividend (which they can afford to pay) for less than $1. Not too bad, isn't it? And at the end of the day, doesn't it make sense to buy retail shares while they are down (and still pay you a good dividend) instead of buying them when everybody is pushing them up?

[Fortunecookie]

You can see the damage to retail stocks a mile away.

[Rawz]

OK - admittedly the announcement is somewhat fuzzy, and yes, your numbers look right.

But first lets check with last years report to put it into perspective, shall we?

Last years Gross margin was 58.9%. This is not bad, and they say that the margin this year will be in line with that.

Their revenue last year was $980m, this year they predict $1100m. More than 10% growth, not too bad either.

Underlying EBITDA last year was $92m. This year they expect it in the vicinity of $105m ... $110m (i.e. growing inline or even a bit faster than revenue, which is good).

Last years EBITDA resulted in an underlying NPAT of $36.2m. Admittedly - we don't know about the extras, but for starters I would expect their NPAT this year slightly above $40m.

So yes, Net margins are thin ... but then, they are in retail - and at the end, what is the problem?

From an investors perspective - you can currently buy a 6 cent dividend (which they can afford to pay) for less than $1. Not too bad, isn't it? And at the end of the day, doesn't it make sense to buy retail shares while they are down (and still pay you a good dividend) instead of buying them when everybody is pushing them up?

Yes agree. Not too bad but i dont think KMD is cheap and i think it was priced to do a little better. I was expecting higher underlying ebitda.

So now looking at the chart it was looking okay for most of this year in what i can tell. Trading in a holding pattern waiting to see results. I am worried now its going to get into a downtrend with SP below 50 below 100 below 200.. and soon will be priced like the rest of the retailers i.e. p/e at or under 10 and double digit div yield.

I have sold this morning.