GNE - Genesis Energy

[fish]

From a TA perspective at what point would buy signals show? Presuming breaking through various trading averages in the opposite direction and as such not buying in at or near bottom maximizing gains?

It’s a hard balance to find TA versus fundamentals and I’m novice level investor just trying to support fuller retirement and my limited understanding points towards a value buy. Decent dividends, transitioning towards renewables but nz still very much a need basis for generation including non-renewables for some time yet, reasonable buy in price now comparing to other gentailers with solid market share in an industry that isn’t subject to the ebbs and flows of economic cycles given the challenges looming. The big players push prices around both up and down and we are at their mercy in reality but at the end of the day the company is making money, paying dividends and share price should surely stay within a range that reflects what it is, not a hero, not a big risk, something in the middle that has had its share price pushed around and potentially ready to start clawing some back over time?

Certainly interested in learning more so hoping for more dialogue on the pros and cons..

I think you have made a good choice to meet future retirement income .
This entails looking at the next couple of decades-so I would look at fundamentals .
For instance with thermal generation they are investing approx 100m in Kupe-ks-9-to further develop the field but this will provide gas for at least anther 20 years .

[workingdad]

I think you have made a good choice to meet future retirement income .
This entails looking at the next couple of decades-so I would look at fundamentals .
For instance with thermal generation they are investing approx 100m in Kupe-ks-9-to further develop the field but this will provide gas for at least anther 20 years .

Thanks fish, re Kupe and gas we share that thought, far from an end of life field and prices are more likely to increase than drop. I think a buyer will be found but the government has its hooks in so another benefit if national wins.

Ultimately for me, with EV push the future needs for electricity to run the demands for this replacing petrol and diesel over time is only going up and quite significantly, imagine 10% of the national fleet needing electricity, then 20%….. it’s exponential growth that gentailers will have revenue gains with. Greener production is key and they are investing into this with huntly to fill the gaps.

[xafalcon]

Ultimately for me, with EV push the future needs for electricity to run the demands for this replacing petrol and diesel over time is only going up and quite significantly, imagine 10% of the national fleet needing electricity, then 20%….. it’s exponential growth that gentailers will have revenue gains with. Greener production is key and they are investing into this with huntly to fill the gaps.

EVs are not likely to significantly increase electricity demand by themselves. Doing the maths. An average car travels 12,000km pa. An EV travels about 6.5km/KWh. So uses 2000KWh pa. A typical kiwi house uses 8000KWh pa. So a 25% increase. Then factor in the penetration of EVs, your 10% then 20%..... at 10% penetration it's an average 2.5% increase in average household power increase (over a 5 year [?] period) = 0.5% pa. Then factor in the household vs NZ total power use. Call it 50:50, so the increase in power use halves again to 0.25% pa

The more significant change will come from process heat energy transition (electrification). Look at coal use, and gas use in NZ. Convert the BTU's to KWh and compare with total NZ energy use pa. Share your results

And then look at population growth, and extrapolate energy use on a population basis. If population grows by 100,000pa, that's 2% of 5M, so it's reasonable to assume a 2% increase in energy use pa

[thegreatestben]

Also have to consider most EV's are being charged overnight when load on the grid is low and this is being incentivised by most energy providers.
We also make use of the timer function built into the car so we plug the charger in when we park up but it doesn't start until our night rates kick in.

I agree with xafalcon that moving to more electrification of heat is the big consumer, I was chatting with my sparky when we were completing our subdivision and he was saying that as people go towards things like instant boiling water units, electric water heating, induction hobs etc really intensifies the load from a household.

[workingdad]

Very good points re the EVs and transition towards more electricity for energy not to mention population growth. Giving it more thought, there’s a ferry, trucks are coming through and industries are moving away from boilers. Electricity demands will grow and that’s good for the gentailers.

Houses getting solar is an offset to this but the investment required puts it out of the reach of many.

[iceman]

Good discussion on EVs and I agree with most of the numbers xfalcon has put up, except I think the 10-20% EV penetration is far too conservative. Other countries with our level of renewable energy such as Norway and Iceland are already light years ahead of us, but probably give us an idea where we will go in a fairly short time:

Iceland: "In the first half of 2022 some 85 per cent of private cars sold in Iceland were plug-ins. The number of electric cars sold on the market on the island has jumped up by 25 per cent this year from 60 per cent of all newly registered vehicles in 2021, and 46 per cent in 2020.. "

Norway: https://insideevs.com/news/675163/no...ales-june2023/

Sadly NZ is pathetically slow in building the EV charging infrastructure, which will hold back EV sales.

[FTG]

From a TA perspective at what point would buy signals show? Presuming breaking through various trading averages in the opposite direction and as such not buying in at or near bottom maximizing gains?

It’s a hard balance to find TA versus fundamentals and I’m novice level investor just trying to support fuller retirement and my limited understanding points towards a value buy. Decent dividends, transitioning towards renewables but nz still very much a need basis for generation including non-renewables for some time yet, reasonable buy in price now comparing to other gentailers with solid market share in an industry that isn’t subject to the ebbs and flows of economic cycles given the challenges looming. The big players push prices around both up and down and we are at their mercy in reality but at the end of the day the company is making money, paying dividends and share price should surely stay within a range that reflects what it is, not a hero, not a big risk, something in the middle that has had its share price pushed around and potentially ready to start clawing some back over time?

Certainly interested in learning more so hoping for more dialogue on the pros and cons..

Consistently successful long-term investing is rarely 'easy'. TA is just one of a bunch of tools available to an investor to assess whether & when they would be best to enter, or exit, an investment. At the least, it can make the decision making process a little easier for the investor.

I think many folk view TA as only being suitable for Traders. I beg to differ.

Sure, for medium/long term investors I wouldn't advocate that they only use the TA tool. However IMO, by using TA in conjunction with other tools & analysis, one can quite effectively evaluate & much better understand the market's view of the company. Therefore either further validating other information that one has gleaned from DD. Or, raising some red flags that may indicate some underlying, often 'hidden', issues. A basic premise to keep in mind is that a price chart will objectively show you WHAT has and is happening (and what MAY more likely happen in the more immediate future). A price chart can also give you a good read on what 'emotional state' the market participants were/are in. But unfortunately, it won't tell you all the reasons WHY it has/is happening.

In answering your question "at what point would buy signals show"? I subscribe to the view that for most medium/long-term investors, if using TA, it is best to keep the KISS theory top of mind.

More specifically use weekly price charts, or even better monthly, rather than using Hrly & Four Hrly (& maybe even daily) charts, which present far too much "noise" for most medium/long-term investors to effectively assess the situation.

Additionally, there is no need to over complicate things by placing multiple indicators on these big-picture charts.

They key objectives of taking this approach are to identify A) the actual medium/long term trend B) Any meaningful Support/Resistance Zones and key Pivot points.

In GNE's case, it has clearly been on a multi-month downtrend (Lower highs - Lower Lows). In fact, it has been pretty much one way traffic since April 2021. A 42% fall from the ATH to the recent low.

But....as I previously alluded price action is now occurring around an area of significant S/R (plus for the FIB geeks - $2.31 marks the 61.8% retracement). Volume has also picked up in recent weeks (which often happens around key turning points).

Some Green (pun intended) shoots perhaps? Are we now finally seeing a significant low forming? Only time will tell, but once the weekly chart starts consistently printing above circa $2.55 then it may be the time for the medium/long-term investor to pounce!

However, be aware & remain vigilant. IF, GNE breaks through this support zone, then IMO it would be much more likely that we would first see some sort of capitulation (bad news?) event.

[X-men]

Lol...genital companies (excuse my spelling) do not need a TA to buy....or sell...

One simple rule...when sudden down...U buy...when sudden spike in SP ...U sell...

Otherwise....hold n enjoy the dividend

[FTG]

Lol...genital companies (excuse my spelling) do not need a TA to buy....or sell...

One simple rule...when sudden down...U buy...when sudden spike in SP ...U sell...

Otherwise....hold n enjoy the dividend

Meanwhile, an interesting observation - The US Utilities Index (DJUSUT), which yields much higher than the broader market, has recently printed yet another low for the year.

[X-men]

Not sure about the US one...but look at MEL,CEN, MCY,.....