Black Monday

[bull....]

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/...ill-overvalued

"Based on the latest S&P 500 monthly data, the market is overvalued somewhere in the range of 70% to 126%, depending on the indicator, down from last month's 73% to 130%."

yep article just emphasizing what plenty of people think. that is equities still expensive

[Daytr]

IMHO It's a wrong move.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion & that's what stops are for.

But I think you are massively wrong if you think the market is over valued by a minimum of 76%.
How can something be over valued by more than 100%?

[SailorRob]

How can something be over valued by more than 100%?

Because... Math...

If intrinsic value of a particular of something is $50 and market value $150, then it's selling for $100 more than you believe it's worth. In this case, it's overvalued by 200%.

The calculation is:


((Market Price - Intrinsic Value) / Intrinsic Value) * 100%


= (($150 - $50) / $50) * 100%


= 200%

[Daytr]

Because... Math...

If intrinsic value of a particular of something is $50 and market value $150, then it's selling for $100 more than you believe it's worth. In this case, it's overvalued by 200%.

The calculation is:


((Market Price - Intrinsic Value) / Intrinsic Value) * 100%


= (($150 - $50) / $50) * 100%


= 200%

Fair enough, but the post didn't say intrinsic value. It said value.
I didn't bother reading the article as these doomsday peddlers are a waste of time.
Even a clock....

[Daytr]

just as we thought testing those critical supports again .... could get ugly if they dont hold

Indeed but that's what stops are for.
I had a nice little in & out trade on the DOW in the last 24 hours, now long the NASDAQ on the current lows.
Certainly don't what another result like Alphabet.
Meta reports after the bell.

[winner69]

Guru Jeremy Grantham: "In the U.S., the three near perfect markets with crazy investor behaviour and 2.5+ sigma overvaluation have always been followed by big market declines of 50%. The current superbubble features a dangerous mix of cross-asset overvaluation."

Jeez ..not good, bad times ahead?

[bull....]

Indeed but that's what stops are for.
I had a nice little in & out trade on the DOW in the last 24 hours, now long the NASDAQ on the current lows.
Certainly don't what another result like Alphabet.

end of the day print is the important one ( as far as the supports go ) and of course results after the bell.
i closed my short couple hrs ago ( i mainly day trade index stuff )

[SailorRob]

Fair enough, but the post didn't say intrinsic value. It said value.
I didn't bother reading the article as these doomsday peddlers are a waste of time.
Even a clock....

Come on bro... You said how can anything be overvalued by more that 100%

Which was a display of a lack of mathematical competence.

It is possible for things to be overvalued by more than 100%, that was the point, not the specific example.

[SailorRob]

Guru Jeremy Grantham: "In the U.S., the three near perfect markets with crazy investor behaviour and 2.5+ sigma overvaluation have always been followed by big market declines of 50%. The current superbubble features a dangerous mix of cross-asset overvaluation."

Jeez ..not good, bad times ahead?

Yes his track record is pretty good with this stuff.

Called 56 of the last 2 crashes perfectly.

[Daytr]

Come on bro... You said how can anything be overvalued by more that 100%

Which was a display of a lack of mathematical competence.

It is possible for things to be overvalued by more than 100%, that was the point, not the specific example.

Yawn ........