Black Monday

[Daytr]

Yes I said that all of your incredible predictions are consensus and are reflected in current market pricing - as per the article I supplied.

Economist's forecasts aren't prices.
You're correct though. Stay away from trading as you have no clue. But just because you don't doesn't mean others don't.

After all there are a lot of people who make a very good living from it.

But this is the never ending merry-go-round with you. Something you know little about but have very strong opinions on.

Could be a nice resolution there for you.
Happy New Year

[winner69]

Hey daytr, heard that the 2023 Santa Claus rally may be that fabled final peak before the long-anticipated blowoff of the markets.

What you think of that prediction?

[alokdhir]

What matters most to stocks as it matters most to real economy is the level of rates ...great benchmark is 10 year yield ....US10Y started year 3.745% ending 3.88% with high being 5.02%

NZ 10Y started year 4.485% ended at 4.332% with high being 5.607 ...so surely trending down and will keep going down towards 3.5% LT average

I am of the opinion that 2024 will be GOOD year for the markets ...we shud close 2024 at much higher levels then 2023 closing ...wont be surprised we have a 20% gain for the index in 2024 !!! NZX50G ...I am talking about not US markets please

[SailorRob]

Economist's forecasts aren't prices Correct and not what I am talking about. I am talking about market future prices which have priced in your predictions.

You're correct though. Stay away from trading as you have no clue. But just because you don't doesn't mean others don't. Correct

After all there are a lot of people who make a very good living from it. There are an infinitesimally small number of people who do over the long term, many get paid to trade other peoples money, but people who actually make a living from trading their own capital - thus actually living off returns generated.... I only know of one person. He trades of 12 screens and can make money off 'any chart anywhere anytime' He learned the art while working on the forecourt of a petrol station from a property 'investor'.

But this is the never ending merry-go-round with you. Something you know little about but have very strong opinions on.

Could be a nice resolution there for you.

Happy New Year

And to you also Daytr

[SailorRob]

What matters most to stocks as it matters most to real economy is the level of rates ...great benchmark is 10 year yield ....US10Y started year 3.745% ending 3.88% with high being 5.02%

NZ 10Y started year 4.485% ended at 4.332% with high being 5.607 ...so surely trending down and will keep going down towards 3.5% LT average Is this what history has taught us over the last 200 years? That we have a bout of inflation and subsequent rate increases which correct towards the mean in a stable linear fashion? If not then why do you say surely?

I am of the opinion that 2024 will be GOOD year for the markets ...we shud close 2024 at much higher levels then 2023 closing ...wont be surprised we have a 20% gain for the index in 2024 !!! NZX50G ...I am talking about not US markets please

You mean the NZ50C? The G isn't a real index.

[winner69]

What matters most to stocks as it matters most to real economy is the level of rates ...great benchmark is 10 year yield ....US10Y started year 3.745% ending 3.88% with high being 5.02%

NZ 10Y started year 4.485% ended at 4.332% with high being 5.607 ...so surely trending down and will keep going down towards 3.5% LT average

I am of the opinion that 2024 will be GOOD year for the markets ...we shud close 2024 at much higher levels then 2023 closing ...wont be surprised we have a 20% gain for the index in 2024 !!! NZX50G ...I am talking about not US markets please

Remember our mate Hoop says inflation is the key driver of equity markets

Where do you see inflation going in 2024 alokdhir?

[SailorRob]

Remember our mate Hoop says inflation is the key driver of equity markets

Where do you see inflation going in 2024 alokdhir?

And what do you see the weather doing in the third week of September? Cheers.

[SailorRob]

• A few months after publishing the op-ed, Buffett told CNBC: “I have no idea what the stock market is going to do tomorrow or next week or next month or next year. I actually said [this] twice in the article. The editor said, ‘You’re not supposed to say things twice.’ I said, ‘I want to say this twice [because it’s so important].’

[SailorRob]

• “In the absence of a track record of accomplishment, you should take a CEO’s plans as hopeful intent. That doesn’t mean they are lying, just that we really don’t necessarily know what they can or cannot do. There is a particular danger if they use language that resonates with you. More than once in my investment career did I fall for someone who said all the right things, except that they hadn’t done them — in the past, or as it turned out, in the future.”

[Daytr]

And what do you see the weather doing in the third week of September? Cheers.

Again just a silly comment. There are plenty of reasons why macro views can be reliably formed.
Ignoring economic outlook is what fund managers do. They're the ones that are always saying it's a time to buy. Why?
Because that's what they are paid to do.

• A few months after publishing the op-ed, Buffett told CNBC: “I have no idea what the stock market is going to do tomorrow or next week or next month or next year. I actually said [this] twice in the article. The editor said, ‘You’re not supposed to say things twice.’ I said, ‘I want to say this twice [because it’s so important].’

Didn't Buffett say something along the lines of he doesn't understand the macro?
So why is his opinion relevant here?
He stuck to what he is good at.