https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=taXIbXYt6YY
The Israel Lobby with John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt | Outside the Box Podcast Apr 18, 2024

44:55 I think there's no question that the discourse has changed. I think that Steve and I played a key role in changing the discourse when we wrote first the article and then the book but the discourse can change. But the really important question is whether policy actually changes and I think we would all agree that there has not been a significant change in American policy towards Israel. The lobby remains remarkably powerful.

There's no question that in the body politic views about Israel especially among younger people have changed significantly.

45:48 There's much less sympathy for Israel among younger people than there used to be and again this is why the lobby is so interested with shutting down Tiktok. But the question you have to ask yourself is whether or not that's going to matter at the elite level because the elite level is where policy is formulated and executed and what you have is a situation where I believe the lobby remains extremely effective at influencing how policy makers think and act towards Israel even though down below the discourse has caused a change. The discourse has changed in fundamental ways. The question you have to ask yourself is whether you believe that if the discourse changes even more moving forward that change down below will manifest itself in important ways up at the policy level or do you believe in contrast that the lobby will be able to keep policy makers in line despite what's happening down below.

I obviously hope that what happens down below puts pressure on people at the top and they change policy I'm not terribly optimistic probably more pessimistic than Steve that's point number one.

47:13 Point number two is one could make an argument that what you see happening here is that as time goes by the Democratic party is becoming more hostile to Israel and the Republican party is becoming more supportive of Israel and one could make an argument that at some point down the road you will have a real difference of opinion on what our policy should be towards Israel between Democrats in one on one hand and Republicans on the other hand.

It's very important to understand that 50% of the people who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 this is 50% believe that the Israelis are committing genocide in Gaza that's a really stunning figure. There is a great deal of hostility inside the Democratic party towards the lobby and towards Israel and one can argue that if Joe Biden is defeated in November and people attribute that defeat in part or maybe in good part to the Lobby's efforts, in Israel's efforts to undermine Biden's policies toward the Middle East during this crisis that that will have serious consequences for the Democratic party's relationship with Israel and with the lobby moving forward. I'm not making the argument that that's going to happen for sure but one does not want to underestimate what the potential consequences are of this crisis for the future of relations between the United States and Israel. This is not just the minor crisis this is a crisis of huge proportions that has not played itself out yet and how it does play itself out remains to be seen. And I'm just saying I would not be surprised if the Democratic party becomes much more hostile towards Israel in the future that had than it has been in recent years.