Black Monday

[Aaron]

Its a big hit to property sentiment for sure - the OCR being such a headline figure. Many people I know of have re-fixed on 1 Year will be a bit gutted. My guess is many an investor waiting for this announcement before deciding on whether to take advantage of the brightline changes in July will see a bump in the number of properties on an already saturated market

Unemployment still rising. We will see

Sounds like good news for first home buyers with a job. Some light at the end of the tunnel at last.

[Leemsip]

Economy is a slow moving beast, but feels like its tipping down pretty hard now. One after the other NZ stonks reporting bad numbers, KMD, WHS, Micheal Hill, Fletcher, ARG, SML...

Feels grim in Wellington I tell ya, the Kainga Ora restructure will be pretty massive in terms of job losses and their massive build programme drying up. I have been told that they have got a full build prog until June 25, and past that they arent making committments due to the review.

I am one of those who think/thought RBNZ will need to cut by the end of the year. Only a few months left, so maybe they make it into early 2025.

Lets all do a BOBDN and buy during the horrible recession of 2025. Hoping my ~30% bond allocation gets a lift and I can swap out into some depressed blue chips (Im looking at you Comvita, Fletcher, SML...lol)

[causecelebre]

I just spent a few moment perusing the comments on various outlets regarding reactions to this announcement. The ignorance is staggering. There is so little understanding of banking. To be fair its complicated but we live in an age where we can educate ourselves easily.

[Daytr]

My read is Orr is trying to get bang for interest rate buck, playing it hard in rhetoric without having to do anything to spook spending further.

I was short NZD up until yesterday, closed out and reset bigger at 61.45 as I figured it would drift off after the announcement & so far so good.
It will be interesting to see what Europe / London does on the open.

[Greekwatchdog]

i expect economy is declining big time as we speak. prob be terrible numbers by time they released sometime next yr lol

yep and property is not going up this yr

anyway isnt that how things work make the rich richer and the poor poorer ?

Yeah then he will cut to hard to quick and create another asset bubble.

It will be a dark winter for everyone. I suspect spring could be the time we see a little brightness, thou we won't see this the the figures until like you say early 25, unless we see data late 24.

Yes, and created by a bunch of inept socialists. Go figure

[SailorRob]

Sharetraders, think carefully about this, I just sent to my agent.

Even if I can save one of you it's worth it.

Hi *******,

Hope all is well, I'll have to drop in sometime to pick up my gift or whatever it was.


Nearly a year since the below exchange, all the sophisticated insiders that you and/or Ray White have access to... who were telling the agents that rate drops were imminent... Guess they are still getting paid to make forecasts! I remember you earnestly telling me what was going to happen to interest rates over the coming Summer at the table like it was yesterday.


What surprises me more is that you will not have one single client that remembers what was getting said last July and is now reminding you about it. All those same people will now be listening to the new forecasts being made.


Reserve Bank now saying 3rd quarter of next year... Of course they have zero clue either.


If any professional ever makes any forecast, the very first question is, what is their prior record with this forecasting. But nobody ever asks that.

[SailorRob]

My read is Orr is trying to get bang for interest rate buck, playing it hard in rhetoric without having to do anything to spook spending further.

Yeah I agree, seems like he is bluffing his chubby arse off.

[Bikeguy]

Yeah I agree, seems like he is bluffing his chubby arse off.

Agreed,
Soon enough he ( or someone else in his seat) is going to be pulling down the OCR as hard as they can, trying to stimulate a stagnating economy…and it will be no different around the world…just like it was before Covid…
Quantitative easing provided the stimulus, now is over we cannot but go back to what the true state of affairs was…

[winner69]

UK inflation down to 2.3%

[causecelebre]

Yeah I agree, seems like he is bluffing his chubby arse off.

Better to bluff the conservative side rather than coming in too dovish and it splat in his face. QE easier that QT should it go bad being hawkish

UK inflation down to 2.3%

Giddyup.