HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Baa_Baa]

Mike for God's sake don't as questions like that.

The moon is waxing crescent and Fibonacci has spoken.

Just like bulkowski knows that OCA earnings are on Friday and built it into his famed Double bottom.

Fibonacci sequence as you already know is a mathematical formulae that freaky occurs and reoccurs in numerous natural sciences. For charting market prices, it is just the points in between two share prices that might indicate potential market (population) sentiment. Funnily enough the strong Fib numbers do often indicate support or resistance to SP movements, the 0.618 in particular.

It's not necessary to deride it as it's just one of the very many share price performance indicators, trying to make some sense of market participants sentiment in a natural system of chaos (the market itself).

Bulkowski has no idea or interest in future earnings, or any fundamental analysis. His analysis is purely on price movements in a market and the patterns those form, and the probabilities of share price movement after the pattern has formed. It's just another lens into the market, with the sole purpose of 'timing' a buy and/or sell, with the ensuing greater or lesser probability that the price will move one way or the other.

All good traders make two trades at the same time, the buy with the limit sell, or the short sell with the limit buy. The spread between them changes based on the probability of the trade, low probability tight spread, high probability loose spread.

If someone on here posted that they've nailed a system for reading tea leaves or chicken entrails for improving their insights into timing their market buys and sells, albeit tempered by probabilities (statistics), before I suggest that they are deluded and mock the system, I would read everything I could find, thousands of pages over many years in excruciating detail (like you do FA), and then apply it myself to real world data, back test it across numerous use-cases, and make up my own mind whether it was Bulkowski, or Bull****.

The Fibonacci sequence of numbers 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, …, each of which, after the second, is the sum of the two previous numbers; that is, the nth Fibonacci number F_n = F_{n − 1} + F<sub>n− 2

https://thepatternsite.com/FibonacciTargets.html</sub>

[SailorRob]

If someone on here posted that they've nailed a system for reading tea leaves or chicken entrails for improving their insights into timing their market buys and sells, albeit tempered by probabilities (statistics), before I suggest that they are deluded and mock the system, I would read everything I could find, thousands of pages over many years in excruciating detail

I would certainly do this if I had the time, but around 2 Billion people told me they have a system where they are going to a place called Heaven and essentially living in paradise for eternity as long as you follow a few simple rules, and so I decided to investigate as you suggest is prudent and I'm not even through the first Testament yet. Then I have the Quran.

[Baa_Baa]

I would certainly do this if I had the time, but around 2 Billion people told me they have a system where they are going to a place called Heaven and essentially living in paradise for eternity as long as you follow a few simple rules, and so I decided to investigate as you suggest is prudent and I'm not even through the first Testament yet. Then I have the Quran.

Ha ha, good one, if they help you time your buys and sells in the market then it will be worth it, but don't forget the Tanakh, the New Testament, the Analects of Confucius and the Rig Veda. When you're done with that if you're not old and decrepit, have a read of Bullkowski as well, download a free charting tool like Livecharts.com or Tradingview.com and have a play with that as well.

[ValueNZ]

Baa_Baa what's this guys track record (CAGR)? Can't seem to find anything online.

[SailorRob]

Ha ha, good one, if they help you time your buys and sells in the market then it will be worth it, but don't forget the Tanakh, the New Testament, the Analects of Confucius and the Rig Veda. When you're done with that if you're not old and decrepit, have a read of Bullkowski as well, download a free charting tool like Livecharts.com or Tradingview.com and have a play with that as well.

Nothing like free tools that can make you an unlimited amount of cash.

I've been a paid up member of Tradingview for many years, very good platform. Often you post charts and I think that the software looks dark ages compared to Tradingview, thought you didn't know about it.

[Baa_Baa]

Nothing like free tools that can make you an unlimited amount of cash.

I've been a paid up member of Tradingview for many years, very good platform. Often you post charts and I think that the software looks dark ages compared to Tradingview, thought you didn't know about it.

Investing.com IS the Tradingview charting platform, I only post simple charts when I do, not the ones that I have that are massively complicated with multiple analysis on them. That would just confuse most people.

In any event, my belief is that investing is about two things .. what ... and when. I enjoy your analysis on the 'what', it is more insightful and sophisticated than I have ever achieved, albeit my FA skills are enough to find what i think is a good investment and hopefully avoid too many duds.

I use my TA tools to decide the 'when'. I see no point in ignoring the market sentiment that prices (not values) our investments, it annoys me when I have made impetuous decisions to buy something only to see it available cheaper to buy next week or month, or leave too much money on the table selling too late.

Anyway, enjoy your posts about the what to buy, just trying to point out that there are tools that can be helpful with understanding the probabilities of when to buy, or sell.

[Baa_Baa]

Baa_Baa what's this guys track record (CAGR)? Can't seem to find anything online.

As far as I know, he's not a fund manager or anything like that and I've never seen him present himself in that light, so seems reasonable he wouldn't post his personal CAGR. Look through that ValueNZ, the guy is simply publishing his analysis and findings of the probabilities of market price movements based on analysis of many many thousands of scenarios. It's a probability analysis based on price trading, not value, and not a measurable fund.

[Balance]

Had a chat with one of my banking contacts yesterday regarding interest rates outlook and as an aside, his view on HGH.

They (the bank which btw is an international bank, not one of the locals) believe that the RBNZ has well and truly misread the weak state of the NZ economy and is well behind the curve. They are observing many very weak points already apparent in the economy (financial stress, retail spending, recession despite record net migration, weak property prices, declining tax take, increased unemployment despite record migration to Australia and big increases in insolvencies and receiverships) and are concerned that the RB will overdo using high interest rates to crunch inflation.

Especially when inflation is already heading lower (annualized March quarter was 2.4%) and will continue to go lower due to the above weak points. Domestic inflation being targeted by the RB is unlikely to come down in a big hurry given it's ever increasing local council rates, government charges and household servicing costs like insurance driving costs increases.

Net net, they believe the RB is going to have to cut rates sooner than later and cut sharply. He likened the RB to a drunken driver in charge of the monetary policy car driving along a windy road!

AS for HGH, his view (not the bank) is that buying Challenger Bank makes a lot of sense for one strong and compelling reason - access to cheaper funds courtesy of the Australian FCS deposit guarantee scheme. Australians do place their funds up to $250,000 with different banks to take advantage of the guarantee, say $250k with 4 banks than $1m with 1 bank. He thinks that's something which has been missed by many in the market.

[SailorRob]

Had a chat with one of my banking contacts yesterday regarding interest rates outlook and as an aside, his view on HGH.

They (the bank which btw is an international bank, not one of the locals) believe that the RBNZ has well and truly misread the weak state of the NZ economy and is well behind the curve. They are observing many very weak points already apparent in the economy (financial stress, retail spending, recession despite record net migration, weak property prices, declining tax take, increased unemployment despite record migration to Australia and big increases in insolvencies and receiverships) and are concerned that the RB will overdo using high interest rates to crunch inflation.

Especially when inflation is already heading lower (annualized March quarter was 2.4%) and will continue to go lower due to the above weak points. Domestic inflation being targeted by the RB is unlikely to come down in a big hurry given it's ever increasing local council rates, government charges and household servicing costs like insurance driving costs increases.

Net net, they believe the RB is going to have to cut rates sooner than later and cut sharply. He likened the RB to a drunken driver in charge of the monetary policy car driving along a windy road!

AS for HGH, his view (not the bank) is that buying Challenger Bank makes a lot of sense for one strong and compelling reason - access to cheaper funds courtesy of the Australian FCS deposit guarantee scheme. Australians do place their funds up to $250,000 with different banks to take advantage of the guarantee, say $250k with 4 banks than $1m with 1 bank. He thinks that's something which has been missed by many in the market.

What is your contacts track record on prior interest outlooks?

Why does he/she work for a wage?

Why have the RBNZ missed the points you raise when all are public knowledge?

[Ggcc]

What is your contacts track record on prior interest outlooks?

Why does he/she work for a wage?

Why have the RBNZ missed the points you raise when all are public knowledge?

I feel many people in the banking industry choose to work for status and networking.