HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[bull....]

I would certainly do this if I had the time, but around 2 Billion people told me they have a system where they are going to a place called Heaven and essentially living in paradise for eternity as long as you follow a few simple rules, and so I decided to investigate as you suggest is prudent and I'm not even through the first Testament yet. Then I have the Quran.

yes 2 billion people believe in fib levels so with that believe it becomes self reinforcing in our march towards first level.

[bull....]

Mike Hosking then interviewed Orr, who criticised the lack of competition between New Zealand banks.
“There is a total lack of competition between the big four [banks].
”They have pricing power... we stand completely beside what we do, and that big four grip must be broken, and it will be broken by innovative products.”

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...K3Y3JYWZ3P3H4/

hgh got an innovative product coming ?

[jonu]

Why have the RBNZ missed the points you raise when all are public knowledge?

That, surely, is a question for the incompetent twit we have running the RBNZ on a fat salary for an extended term (thanks Robbo). I knew we were in trouble when Orr got in the seat and started spouting stuff about Tanemahuta.

[Balance]

That, surely, is a question for the incompetent twit we have running the RBNZ on a fat salary for an extended term (thanks Robbo). I knew we were in trouble when Orr got in the seat and started spouting stuff about Tanemahuta.

Please don’t insult twits.

Orr is a ‘class A’ buffoon who completely fxxked up monetary settings during 2020 to 2022 (along with that *itch Ardern) and landed NZ in the economic mess which he is dragging out to save his own skin and job.

What a freaking joke Orr is. Imagine his thought process when he is incorporating Maori myths and legends into monetary policies!

Seen anyone or anybody outside of Robbo or the Labour Party endorsing him as having done a good job?

[Traderx]

Was in HGH after I bought during the selldown by George Kerr/PGC all those years ago at between 52c to 82c. George of course sold out to the ChCh 'mafia' for 56c. Was very tasty taking a 6 digit gain years later when HGH traded above $2.00.

I have been closely following HGH again since I sold out at $1.78 (took a marginal 3c hit on the way out on my second foray back into the stock) and have just started buying back.

Have a look at the chart below of the banking stocks (WBC, ANZ, NAB, CBA and HGH) and one can observe that they move in unison overall, reflecting the dynamics at play (economic, interest rates and profitability) in the Australasian banking industry.

HGH was following the pattern until late 2023/early 2024 when it became clear to the market that the Challenger Bank acquisition was going ahead and HGH was going to have to do another CR ($200m was raised in 2022) to fund the acquisition. One can see that while the other banks' share prices started recovering, HGH's sp continued to drop.

Hardly surprising as two $200m CRs ($400m) within 18 months are beyond the appetite of shareholders to absorb.

So we are now in the post CR and post Challenger Bank acquisition trading period. There are the flippers who took up the rights and underwrote the CR at $1.00 who are selling out for a quick trade (good on them) or cutting their loss.

I do not expect the selling to continue for much longer (another week perhaps) as it makes little sense to sell out at under $1.00 although the underwriters' break-even price is more like 97c (3% underwriting fee).

I am calling 96c the bottom and expect HGH's sp to track back towards what the other banks are trading at in the next 12 months. I would be disappointed (and wrong) if the sp does not hit $1.25 by end of 2024.

Now fire away your arrows and throw your rocks. Just remember though that I sold at over $2.00 and then, bailed out at $1.78 in my second foray and am buying back at $1.00 +/-.

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/chart/H...oid2VlayJ9fX0-

Kudos to "Balance" who appears to have precisely call the bottom - bravo Sir/Madam! Unfortunately being not such a savvy person am still somewhat underwater but onwards and upwards!

[RTM]

Had a chat with one of my banking contacts yesterday regarding interest rates outlook and as an aside, his view on HGH.

They (the bank which btw is an international bank, not one of the locals) believe that the RBNZ has well .

Thanks for taking the time to share that info Balance. And earlier post re getting back into HGH.
Appreciated.

[winner69]

What is your contacts track record on prior interest outlooks?

Why does he/she work for a wage?

Why have the RBNZ missed the points you raise when all are public knowledge?

Bit grumpy are we today mate

There’s an old saying this .’when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right’. Balance's contact probably right.

[SailorRob]

Bit grumpy are we today mate

There’s an old saying this .’when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right’. Balance's contact probably right.

The saying you're thinking of sport is;

Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future.

If balances contact reported to him from the 100 foot yacht in the med then I'll take it seriously.

But then again, would I believe that someone with the ability to predict this stuff would freely share it?

[Ggcc]

Had a chat with one of my banking contacts yesterday regarding interest rates outlook and as an aside, his view on HGH.

They (the bank which btw is an international bank, not one of the locals) believe that the RBNZ has well and truly misread the weak state of the NZ economy and is well behind the curve. They are observing many very weak points already apparent in the economy (financial stress, retail spending, recession despite record net migration, weak property prices, declining tax take, increased unemployment despite record migration to Australia and big increases in insolvencies and receiverships) and are concerned that the RB will overdo using high interest rates to crunch inflation.

Especially when inflation is already heading lower (annualized March quarter was 2.4%) and will continue to go lower due to the above weak points. Domestic inflation being targeted by the RB is unlikely to come down in a big hurry given it's ever increasing local council rates, government charges and household servicing costs like insurance driving costs increases.

Net net, they believe the RB is going to have to cut rates sooner than later and cut sharply. He likened the RB to a drunken driver in charge of the monetary policy car driving along a windy road!

AS for HGH, his view (not the bank) is that buying Challenger Bank makes a lot of sense for one strong and compelling reason - access to cheaper funds courtesy of the Australian FCS deposit guarantee scheme. Australians do place their funds up to $250,000 with different banks to take advantage of the guarantee, say $250k with 4 banks than $1m with 1 bank. He thinks that's something which has been missed by many in the market.

What your friend is seeing is what I am seeing and hearing from business owners. Hours cut at Harvey Norman for staff, Hotel workers asked to take holiday pay, as there are no guests, takeaways and restaurants begging for customers. This is why I still see albeit (through my rose tinted glasses), that interest rates need to come down by the end of this year.
It will be a sad 2025 for some if the tap is not turned on slowly.

[Rawz]

What your friend is seeing is what I am seeing and hearing from business owners. Hours cut at Harvey Norman for staff, Hotel workers asked to take holiday pay, as there are no guests, takeaways and restaurants begging for customers. This is why I still see albeit (through my rose tinted glasses), that interest rates need to come down by the end of this year.
It will be a sad 2025 for some if the tap is not turned on slowly.

I agree. Very tough out there. I believe Balance's mate over Orr lol