- NZ (the most important segment) year-on-year revenue comps went from +8% to +15% from Q4 to Q1. They are lapping periods of price increases now, so there must be decent volume growth in that too.
- Hawaii went from -1% to +6%. Unexpected recovery this soon; interested to see how that continues.
- Australia and Cali were broadly in line with Q4 year on year numbers.
Possibly. But there is also a good chance that these sales growth results are just a blip on the landscape as massive headwinds with cost pressures facing the loyal customer base.
- NZ (the most important segment) year-on-year revenue comps went from +8% to +15% from Q4 to Q1. They are lapping periods of price increases now, so there must be decent volume growth in that too.
- Hawaii went from -1% to +6%. Unexpected recovery this soon; interested to see how that continues.
- Australia and Cali were broadly in line with Q4 year on year numbers.
32c divy back next April on those upticks ... or maybe not ?
Costs will start to come back. Seeing it in Ag with Chem and fert. Wasn’t this stock a winner post 2008? Decline in costs and people still enjoy their chicken! Pizza prices seem the same and haven’t moved in the inflationary environment, is this their loss-leader as it’s more competitive?..
If we cut through all of the large dollar numbers and look it from a purely business units sales point of view.
Did store sales actually increase or retract. I. E was the 6.7 percent increase in dollars due to increased prices or increase unit sales.
Looks like a struggling business.
Price will be the majority for sure.
But we do know the NZ division did not see a volume decline in Y23. From the FY23 Annual Report: "As a result, same store sales growth was maintained without compromising sales volumes."
I reckon KFC NZ easily did 15%+ like-for-like price increases over 2022/2023 in NZ. To not lose volume in 2023 is very good IMO and shows how relatively defensive KFC is
Possibly. But there is also a good chance that these sales growth results are just a blip on the landscape as massive headwinds with cost pressures facing the loyal customer base.
Im picking that sales growth will fall away.
Oh for sure, I absolutely don't expect +15% NZ growth to continue, especially as the comp periods lap the price increases. But by how much do you think they fall? That's what this game is about.
I would point out:
- We are already in a recession. Q1 sales update was a live view of how sales perform in a downturn (for NZ division).
- During the GFC, Restaurant Brands’ KFC stores SSS growth slowed from +7.7% to +4.4%... that's pretty bloody good.
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