OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[ValueNZ]

It's not just a function of the price, but also my understanding of the Business.

To go over much over 10% I would need to do an immense amount of work, which I intend to do. If I am comfortable with what I think I already know, then the potential is there to go to 20% plus. Who knows, maybe even 40%. This is how you get seriously rich. You have to know when to swing for the fences.

I am very confident this business is worth far in excess of NTA. If I keep just NTA value as a massive margin of safety to my actual estimated value and I am sure enough to go say 30% and the business gets valued by the market at NTA at some point and that NTA will be much higher too... Then that's some pretty serious stuff.

Berkshire, although I already owned a lot purchased pre $200, I knew enough to swing seriously at the fence at $260 despite being told I was an idiot by all share traders greatest fools. But I know Berkshire a lot better than OCA.

Great response, that all makes sense. Thanks for posting the earnings call too.

[ValueNZ]

My buddy Rob said Daytr “ What he is doing is obfuscation”

I’d say Oceania themselves are doing the obfuscating …and they are masters of it

A claim like that should be substantiated.

Winner, please tell us exactly what is obfuscated.

[Daytr]

And actually a 4th issue is that people are misunderstanding what this businesses operations actually are, the operations are not just running villages and care facilities, the business operations is also to a very large degree property development.


​

Why do you keep stating the obvious, as if that's not a given. In my original post about this I stated it was excluding the related property development proceeds. So things like DMF, sales & resales are subsidizing the difference between the cost of running the villages and the amount of fees generated from residents.

I highlighted exactly what I wanted to highlight.
An ongoing & increased loss of the day to day running of villages. Yes new developments will impact this until they are sold but not to the tune of $40M.

Other retirement industry operators seem to operate at a day to day profit despite facing the same challenges of new development occupancy.

Anyway, beautiful Saturday here & I'm off to enjoy it.

[SailorRob]

Why do you keep stating the obvious, as if that's not a given. In my original post about this I stated it was excluding the related property development proceeds. So things like DMF, sales & resales are subsidizing the difference between the cost of running the villages and the amount of fees generated from residents.

I highlighted exactly what I wanted to highlight.
An ongoing & increased loss of the day to day running of villages. Yes new developments will impact this until they are sold but not to the tune of $40M.

Other retirement industry operators seem to operate at a day to day profit despite facing the same challenges of new development occupancy.

Anyway, beautiful Saturday here & I'm off to enjoy it.

Your comments on points 1,2 and 3 would also be funny to read.

[mistaTea]

So much squabbling 🫣🤭

[Mrbuyit]

Will we actually hear back about the ~45M gap Aaron asked about..


There seemed to be a lot of umming and aahing for a property development company.

[bull....]

the analyst aron asked good question around cashflow , management could not answer about discrepancies. they will get back to him privately

[Mrbuyit]

Also unless i misinterpreted Brent mentions that the incoming residents need to unload properties in the 5-7m range, is this for real?

[SailorRob]

the analyst aron asked good question around cashflow , management could not answer about discrepancies. they will get back to him privately

I thought it was arooon no?

[Balance]

My buddy Rob said Daytr “ What he is doing is obfuscation”

I’d say Oceania themselves are doing the obfuscating …and they are masters of it

Obfuscation is one word for what Brent & OCA were doing. Clueless could be another?

From the Q & A :

Aaron Ibbotson
Apologies, but I just need to follow up on your sort of unsold new stock and the valuation of it, because it's -- if I look relative to the half year, you've delivered -- what did you deliver in the second half? 120 or something. And then you sold for $60 million or something like that. So you delivered 120 units and then you sold for $60 million. So I'm just trying to understand how this number went down by $69 million or whatever you said during the call.


Brent Pattison
Yes, I think…


Aaron Ibbotson
That's quite a big number.


Brent Pattison
Yes. So I think probably, given we are sort of 15 minutes over what we have allocated, Aaron. Certainly, Kathryn, I, Heath, we're here. We're happy to sort of answer that question, and we're happy to make it available for others, so can we take that off-line so that we can actually do the maths that you've just done to actually provide the right response?


Aaron Ibbotson
Absolutely. Thank you.


Operator
There are no further questions on the teleconference at this time. I'll now hand it back to Brent, Kathryn and Heath to answer any questions from the webcast.


Brent Pattison
There was just a question -- well, there are a couple of questions from the website, but I'm pretty confident that we've covered those and they're were actually just around visibility of sales, and, I think, we've been very transparent about that. There were some comments around these, and I think we've canvassed that to a degree. We'll certainly circle back on this last question that Aaron's raised.
I would say, in conclusion, this is my last time doing this for Oceania and it has been an absolute privilege for me to work with this team, and I love this job very much. And I think Oceania has delivered a fair result to the market. We've got plenty of cleaning ahead of us, and that's a great opportunity for the incoming CEO.
But I do want to thank everybody for their support of our business. We've certainly enjoyed the robustness of these discussions over the years. and we're really proud of what we've done. So thank you for people, making time available and engaging with us in the way that you do.