OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[winner69]

Anyone with who knows anything about business doesn't need Warren Buffett to tell them that cash is king.

That's why I find all of this behaviour around OCA exhausting. As soon as you get into heated debates around valuation methods and accounting rules then it's time to run.

The valuation on my Auckland house looks terrible compared to a few years ago. But I don't go piling more and more money into it because I think it is undervalued. No, I invest in other sectors that are giving returns today.

My point is this, is OCA really worth spending hours on trying to work out if its a good investment or not, when clearly there are better investments out there.

Cash is king

FY24 Cash burn was $78m …if include dividend it was $85m

[mistaTea]

Cash is king

FY24 Cash burn was $78m …if include dividend it was $85m

Yes, very difficult to predict the future cashflows of OCA from here I think, which is why the instos struggle to value it … and may well be on the conservative side?

Having said that, the business is currently valued over $1B when you take an EV lens so the ‘low’ market cap currently is a bit misleading.

The company may well do amazingly well in the future if they can get control of the debt and produce solid cashflows in the future.

Looks like the big players want to see debt come down a lot and management have got the message.

Investors buying today might do very well. But there are still a bunch of ifs and maybes, and we should be able to acknowledge that.

Some really solid points for the bull case. Also some really good considerations for caution.

And lots of shouting, swearing and put downs in the meantime! 🫣

[SailorRob]

Anyone with who knows anything about business doesn't need Warren Buffett to tell them that cash is king.

That's why I find all of this behaviour around OCA exhausting. As soon as you get into heated debates around valuation methods and accounting rules then it's time to run.

The valuation on my Auckland house looks terrible compared to a few years ago. But I don't go piling more and more money into it because I think it is undervalued. No, I invest in other sectors that are giving returns today.

My point is this, is OCA really worth spending hours on trying to work out if its a good investment or not, when clearly there are better investments out there.

Lucky for us both not near a laptop right now.

For gods sake todster.

[davflaws]

LOL.

If you weren't such an obvious social misfit, I may actually think of inviting you to my tropical seaside home.

Since Balance has posted links to both the Whitsundays and Vietnam when telling us about his tropical paradise, and so far refused to clarify where it is, I suspect it actually exists only inside his skull.

Anyone who chooses to join him there in his imaginary paradise will also expose their psyche to a toxic cauldron of visceral hatred, contempt, bigotry, and villification.

A pity, because his rational analyses are both informative and useful.

[Daytr]

Hi Day Trader, 64 pages back now, but I don't think you ever responded to this.

It's ok if you don't understand.

Nice try buddy.
I think there is a song written for you.
Desperado...

No need for further comment. I said it was included in the P&L & Ferg got nit picking with what part of the P&L.

But keep dreaming like OCA's positive reval.
I see RYM wrote down assets, hmmm I wonder which one I believe....

[SailorRob]

Apology accepted Salior, but not necessary, like I said your right to your opinion and to express your view in the way you choose is respected.

I enjoy hearing the views of others, I personally learn a lot from other peoples opinions.

They are not views or opinions...

Facts.

[ValueNZ]

That's why I find all of this behaviour around OCA exhausting. As soon as you get into heated debates around valuation methods and accounting rules then it's time to run.

Toddy, complicated accounting creates inefficiencies in markets which we can take advantage of. It's all about trying to determine the true economic reality of the business, ie the cashflows and the timing of those cashflows. If everyone knows what a business is worth then it'll be priced accordingly.

One example of complicated accounting creating inefficiencies I found last year was Jackson Financial (JXN nyse), an annuity company that used massive hedges on their policyholder liabilities. These hedges would create massive profits and losses under GAAP accounting rules, and each time this occurred the stock would skyrocket and plummet respectively. This is despite cashflows remaining steady, and the underlying business remaining fundamentally unchanged. So under GAAP, a conservatively run business looked like a casino, and as such as was priced accordingly. It's up about 100% since I posted about it last August.

[Toddy]

Maybe the reason I am not a fan is because I worked in Banking and Company Treasury Sections doing such accounting.

I have seen real live examples of when a company has had to unwind Swaps etc and pay USD Bonds back prematurely (thanks to a nice Cap raise from shareholder).
Not one of the syndicated Banks came even close to our Mtm. And the Bank offers were all over the place. Each bank used its own credit margins, break clause fees, discounted swap rates etc. But hey, the Company had to accept the offers.

I fully understand the concept and desired outcomes of such accounting. But it's definitely a theoretical world and lots of bean counters love it.

Just not me. The best thing I ever did was walk away from that world to farming.

[Joshuatree]

Since Balance has posted links to both the Whitsundays and Vietnam when telling us about his tropical paradise, and so far refused to clarify where it is, I suspect it actually exists only inside his skull.

Anyone who chooses to join him there in his imaginary paradise will also expose their psyche to a toxic cauldron of visceral hatred, contempt, bigotry, and villification.

A pity, because his rational analyses are both informative and useful.

Yes , I was living in his head rent free but had to bail due to the ooze.

[Poet]

NBR reporting that Ryman looking to raise fees and abandon its industry-low (2 year max) DMF. That's got to be good for sales at the other operators (OCA, I'm looking at you!)


On generating more revenue, Hamilton said Ryman expects to cut its “fixed-for-life" approach to fees which has “proved painful” in a high inflation environment. Ryman is also reconsidering its deferred management fee (DMF) – the amount of the purchase fee residents pay when they permanently vacate their units – for the village amenities they used during their stay. Ryman's DMF is currently capped at 20%, which is low by industry standards. “We simply haven't been able to recapture almost unprecedented rises in insurance and electricity [prices] and, to a lesser extent, labour,” Hamilton said.