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27-05-2024, 09:56 PM
#20581
Originally Posted by jagger
Yup, rather than obfuscating and talking around the issue just be frank.
It's no secret the macro environment is tough, tell the market to suck it up for 18 months - the strategy is managing for cash, earnings will take a hit but that's only relatively short term.
Cash and residents (i.e. DMF) matter more now than holding out for development margin.
Recycle the cash, get the debt down and keep the pipeline going.
Compare and contrast with what Ryman's CEO did today - bite the bullet, come clean and build from there.
This is a shocker from Ryman and indicative of how the players have been booking huge unrealised gains & deluding themselves and the market :
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/ryman-...AO5BK5NE2UEFE/
So Ryman bought the Karori site for $28m (yes, $28m) in 2016 and now, they are writing the value of the land down by $37.6m? WTF!
Begs the question of how much revaluation ‘gains’ the site has yielded Ryman in the last 7 years before reality bit this year!!!!
No wonder the market has rightly not taken any heed of Ryman’s NTA backing or the NTA of OCA & ARV! So much smoke and mirrors.
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27-05-2024, 10:18 PM
#20582
Member
Originally Posted by Balance
No wonder the market has rightly not taken any heed of Ryman’s NTA backing or the NTA of OCA & ARV! So much smoke and mirrors.
I have no idea how a grifter from a real estate firm has managed to corner the market on valuing billions of dollars of listed assets.
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27-05-2024, 10:35 PM
#20583
That's an interesting description, a "grifter" is "a person who engages in petty or small-scale swindling". I looked it up grifter.
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27-05-2024, 10:43 PM
#20584
Member
Yeah, it's appropriate and why I am perplexed.
Like if a real estate agent was suddenly in line to be nominated as auditor.
Last edited by jagger; 27-05-2024 at 10:45 PM.
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27-05-2024, 10:49 PM
#20585
Originally Posted by Balance
Compare and contrast with what Ryman's CEO did today - bite the bullet, come clean and build from there.
No wonder the market has rightly not taken any heed of Ryman’s NTA backing or the NTA of OCA & ARV! So much smoke and mirrors.
OCA has been able to sell 8 sites for an average price above book value over the last 12 months or so, with one additional site currently under contract.
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28-05-2024, 11:37 AM
#20586
arv to merge with oca .... you heard it here first lol
one step ahead of the herd
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28-05-2024, 11:50 AM
#20587
Originally Posted by bull....
arv to merge with oca .... you heard it here first lol
Could happen bull …ARV hinting at something like that
But just imagine what a giant mess that would be …
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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28-05-2024, 12:00 PM
#20588
Originally Posted by winner69
Could happen bull …ARV hinting at something like that
But just imagine what a giant mess that would be …
lol yes an imagine the reporting
one step ahead of the herd
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28-05-2024, 01:51 PM
#20589
Member
Last edited by jagger; 28-05-2024 at 07:57 PM.
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28-05-2024, 07:29 PM
#20590
Originally Posted by ValueNZ
Toddy, complicated accounting creates inefficiencies in markets which we can take advantage of. It's all about trying to determine the true economic reality of the business, ie the cashflows and the timing of those cashflows. If everyone knows what a business is worth then it'll be priced accordingly.
One example of complicated accounting creating inefficiencies I found last year was Jackson Financial (JXN nyse), an annuity company that used massive hedges on their policyholder liabilities. These hedges would create massive profits and losses under GAAP accounting rules, and each time this occurred the stock would skyrocket and plummet respectively. This is despite cashflows remaining steady, and the underlying business remaining fundamentally unchanged. So under GAAP, a conservatively run business looked like a casino, and as such as was priced accordingly. It's up about 100% since I posted about it last August.
Very well done on JXN ValueNZ that is incredible. I took a look at the time and decided it was too complicated for me, I didn't have the time I needed to truly understand it. Which is exactly why the opportunity existed. Very similar thing happens with Berkshire as well.
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