OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Balance]

Yup, rather than obfuscating and talking around the issue just be frank.
It's no secret the macro environment is tough, tell the market to suck it up for 18 months - the strategy is managing for cash, earnings will take a hit but that's only relatively short term.

Cash and residents (i.e. DMF) matter more now than holding out for development margin.
Recycle the cash, get the debt down and keep the pipeline going.

Compare and contrast with what Ryman's CEO did today - bite the bullet, come clean and build from there.

This is a shocker from Ryman and indicative of how the players have been booking huge unrealised gains & deluding themselves and the market :

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/ryman-...AO5BK5NE2UEFE/

So Ryman bought the Karori site for $28m (yes, $28m) in 2016 and now, they are writing the value of the land down by $37.6m? WTF!

Begs the question of how much revaluation ‘gains’ the site has yielded Ryman in the last 7 years before reality bit this year!!!!

No wonder the market has rightly not taken any heed of Ryman’s NTA backing or the NTA of OCA & ARV! So much smoke and mirrors.

[jagger]

No wonder the market has rightly not taken any heed of Ryman’s NTA backing or the NTA of OCA & ARV! So much smoke and mirrors.

I have no idea how a grifter from a real estate firm has managed to corner the market on valuing billions of dollars of listed assets.

[Baa_Baa]

That's an interesting description, a "grifter" is "a person who engages in petty or small-scale swindling". I looked it up grifter.

[jagger]

Yeah, it's appropriate and why I am perplexed.

Like if a real estate agent was suddenly in line to be nominated as auditor.

[allfromacell]

Compare and contrast with what Ryman's CEO did today - bite the bullet, come clean and build from there.

No wonder the market has rightly not taken any heed of Ryman’s NTA backing or the NTA of OCA & ARV! So much smoke and mirrors.

OCA has been able to sell 8 sites for an average price above book value over the last 12 months or so, with one additional site currently under contract.

[bull....]

arv to merge with oca .... you heard it here first lol

[winner69]

arv to merge with oca .... you heard it here first lol

Could happen bull …ARV hinting at something like that

But just imagine what a giant mess that would be …

[bull....]

Could happen bull …ARV hinting at something like that

But just imagine what a giant mess that would be …

lol yes an imagine the reporting

[jagger]

[deleted comment]

[SailorRob]

Toddy, complicated accounting creates inefficiencies in markets which we can take advantage of. It's all about trying to determine the true economic reality of the business, ie the cashflows and the timing of those cashflows. If everyone knows what a business is worth then it'll be priced accordingly.

One example of complicated accounting creating inefficiencies I found last year was Jackson Financial (JXN nyse), an annuity company that used massive hedges on their policyholder liabilities. These hedges would create massive profits and losses under GAAP accounting rules, and each time this occurred the stock would skyrocket and plummet respectively. This is despite cashflows remaining steady, and the underlying business remaining fundamentally unchanged. So under GAAP, a conservatively run business looked like a casino, and as such as was priced accordingly. It's up about 100% since I posted about it last August.

Very well done on JXN ValueNZ that is incredible. I took a look at the time and decided it was too complicated for me, I didn't have the time I needed to truly understand it. Which is exactly why the opportunity existed. Very similar thing happens with Berkshire as well.