Hoop - interesting stuff

Secular cycles are generally based on valuation cycles more so then prices ...... like P/E ratios which over time do cycle from highs to lows.

Secular bear markets commence at the first down year after P/E ratio peaks and ends at the bottom of the P/E cycle (when the low is reached) ....... conversely a secular bull market runs from a low P/E to when the P/E peaks.

The secular bear market in the US from 1966 to 1981 saw P/E ratios fall from 24 to 9 .... followed by a secular bull market through to 1999 when P/E ratios reached 42 ...... and the current secular bear market then started ......... and will probably end when P/E goes below 10 (based on history) some time in the future

Another interesting thing that is counter intuitive is that the US economy usually does better during a secular bear market then during a secular bull market .... like from 1964 to 1981 the DOW went nowhere but GDP grew by 373% while during 1982 to 1999 when the DOW 1,200% GDP grew by only 196% (half of what it was during a bear market) Inflation had some bearing but taking out inflation real GDP growth was similar in both the secular bear and bull market.

It really is valuation cycles that matter .... rather than price

Looking ahead P/E in the USA is still high (esp if you account for record margins (not sustainable) and as it is turning out a lot of the financials profits were all smoke and mirrors eh ..... this is why I stick to mt long term hypothesis as to waht is going to happen over the long term and invest accordingly