NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[777]

Another area for NZO to look at.

Stuff > Business > Story
Seismic data points to possible huge NZ oil field
NZPA | Friday, 29 February 2008


Crown Minerals plans to unveil details of a new sedimentary basin potentially more productive than the Taranaki oilfields, the National Business Review reported today.
Crown Minerals and GNS, a state-owned geological researcher, will present details of their seismic exploration of the Raukumara basin, off the North Island's east coast, at a national conference in March.
It has raised hopes that the country may strike another vein of oil as rich as the Taranaki oil field.
GNS exploration geophysicist Chris Uruski said New Zealand's total oil stocks could be around 10 times as large as Taranaki's.
GNS was contracted to probe the Raukumara basin with seismic technology, which detected "seismic anomalies" that could indicate the presence of hydrocarbons such as oil and gas.
Mr Uruski said Raukumara was geologically interesting.
"No one really knew it was there."
It is a much thicker basin than Taranaki, with around 13km of sedimentary rock as opposed to only about 8km at Taranaki.
That means more hydrocarbons could be trapped in the basin itself and at a better depth for expelling oil.
Its geological folds are less likely to have leaded hydrocarbons because it doesn't have the same broken ground as the Taranaki basin, which is near a faultline.

[upside_umop]

Wasnt expecting a dividend, but the shareprice has reacted reasonably well.
I think people are getting a little carried away...this dividend appears to be a one-off to me.
The company has signalled clearly that it was for a period of good performance from tui and was a reward to shareholders.
Since tui is expected to have water cut, and the company to have other projects to get off the ground (further developments over next few years to get to 25mmboe reserves....) i would think a final dividend is highly unlikely, as is any other future dividends until kupe is up and running.
Even so, this little reward will help me, as a poor student out nicely

I think that the options have a very real chance, on 20 cents out, but momoho will have to strike...so really, for options to be converted, you have to look at the probability of momoho. The valuation by McDougall Stuart on Kupe was reasonably low......

disc: slightly more 16000 NZO... im still a small player :P.....Possibly looking to accumulate more pre momoho.

[bermuda]

Wasnt expecting a dividend, but the shareprice has reacted reasonably well.
I think people are getting a little carried away...this dividend appears to be a one-off to me.
The company has signalled clearly that it was for a period of good performance from tui and was a reward to shareholders.
Since tui is expected to have water cut, and the company to have other projects to get off the ground (further developments over next few years to get to 25mmboe reserves....) i would think a final dividend is highly unlikely, as is any other future dividends until kupe is up and running.
Even so, this little reward will help me, as a poor student out nicely

I think that the options have a very real chance, on 20 cents out, but momoho will have to strike...so really, for options to be converted, you have to look at the probability of momoho. The valuation by McDougall Stuart on Kupe was reasonably low......

disc: slightly more 16000 NZO... im still a small player :P.....Possibly looking to accumulate more pre momoho.

Hi upside down,Sorry not to see you at our latest Chch meeting.

NZO have a strategy for getting the options exercised.They said that in the AR.

Firstly they knew the financials would do the talking.
Secondlly they knew a dividend would boost the shareprice
Thirdly they know that the successful completion of the Kupe wells will add value
Fouthly they know that the new fantastic coking coal price ( could be $200 ) will give a big lift to PRC.......and
Fifthly and most importantly, they know that any decent success at Momoho will see the shareprice go to 1.80 plus and thus the options will be exercised.

Of course this is the theory because in practice the Heads will drop as shareholders sell down to provide funds for the options exercise.

NZO will try and keep the dividend. In another 12 months they will be even flusher. But in the meantime it has served its purpose of getting the sp nearer the target.

[trackers]

134c and building momentum to go past $1.50. With a guaranteed cash flow and massive tax losses to carry forward the s/p is still underdone and the oppies are looking better than an even bet to be in the money.

After a 6 month hiatus as a holder I'm back in via the oppies. SP looks strong, POO looks great, and Pike just around the corner. Hoping for a 2-bagger tbh

[upside_umop]

hey bermuda,
i made it to the last meeting...remember!?
1) the financials are doing the talking indeed. nzx.com states a pe of 6ish..but will be more like 4ish from full report.
2) the dividend has shown the company is willing to reward its shareholders, which shows a change of sentiment towards the stock by the investors.
3) the drills will derisk the project hugely!
4) prc will do ok from high price of coal...but its not yet producing by june, so any further news of delays will have adverse impacts too sp and nzo sp...
5) im thinking momoho will have great results to sp too, more than mcdougall stuart estimates...

i reckon people would rather just sell down their oppies if they are in the money and cant afford to buy the heads, which would leave an opportunity for profit if od's are oversold relative to heads price..

it will be interesting to see if they hold the dividend...i just read some more points now from the website saying they have determined a divend policy with a reasonable proportion of profits by an annual dividend....so maybe this dividend was the annual one...and we cant expect a final dividend...

i will also be looking at entry in od's...was tempted at 4.5 cents when that report came out!

[digger]

Fifthly and most importantly, they know that any decent success at Momoho will see the shareprice go to 1.80 plus and thus the options will be exercised. Bermuda quote.

I had a private few words with DS at the AGM. He indicated that Momoho lies between two successful drills and is about as near a certainty as you can get before the actual drill.I got the impression it was on the plus side of 50% but he did not say that in so many words,but we can go into this drill with a higher hope of success than the others. Naturally that is just as well as the others were all failures or near failures.
A succesful Momoho will push the SP past the conversion price required.

[shasta]

Fifthly and most importantly, they know that any decent success at Momoho will see the shareprice go to 1.80 plus and thus the options will be exercised. Bermuda quote.

I had a private few words with DS at the AGM. He indicated that Momoho lies between two successful drills and is about as near a certainty as you can get before the actual drill.I got the impression it was on the plus side of 50% but he did not say that in so many words,but we can go into this drill with a higher hope of success than the others. Naturally that is just as well as the others were all failures or near failures.
A succesful Momoho will push the SP past the conversion price required.

Digger

Weren't NZO bullish on Hector?

[digger]

Digger

Weren't NZO bullish on Hector?

No,AWE was but NZO were about 1 in 8. About the same odds as the French had of beating the All Blacks. In fact what DS said stood out as it was the only predrill that you could say they are bullish on. Of coa-rse being bullish does no in any way alter the well and really we just have to wait the drill results. Late May or June on current progress.

[manxman]

Of course this is the theory because in practice the Heads will drop as shareholders sell down to provide funds for the options exercise.

I fear you are right Bermuda. One way or another the extra money hoovered up by the exercise of the ODs will slow the upward march of the share price.
For reasons which I don't understand, a fifth rate finance company can attract oodles of money, while a cracking good investment like NZO scares the daylights out of the market. The ODs will suck in $200 million plus, which is a big lump for the NZX to raise.

Certainly expect to see some strange pricing as the day nears and option holders start to worry about raising cash. May be a time to top up.

If Momoho finds anything, will a proper evaluation be available in time for June 30? The ASX might be a bit sticky about a premature announcement, and we must remember that NZO is not the operator. Origin will be calling the shots.

Mx

[Steve]

It looks like someone has cashed in their 2 options for shares @ $1.50!