Auckland International Airport Limited (AIA)

[CJ]

if people want something why dont they simply stand in the market!! ?

Stand in the market can only get them up to 20%. More than that and the stand would be conditional on getting over 90%.

Wonder why they dont make a stand for 20% and then sell into their own offer (I assume they cant do this??).

[Deev8]

Any idea what price the stock will settle at if the deal fails?
I would quite like to built a long term holding but suspect there could be quite a fall if the deal fails.

At $2.45 the price is back to where it was prior to the excitement that began in May last year.

[ratkin]

Why are the canadians bothering? This would of been a good excuse to walk away.
With world markets down so much there must be plenty of better bargains about

[Deev8]

wonder which other top 10 company (& at least half the investors) is next to get screwed by this labour government?

The only shareholders who will get screwed by this proposed legislation are those who don't pay New Zealand income tax. The remainder of us, who actually do pay tax, should benefit because we won't eventually get clobbered by higher taxes to make up the shortfall.

[Deev8]

Why are the canadians bothering? This would of been a good excuse to walk away.

They have made a formal offer and they can't just 'walk away'. The scheme to replace ordinary shares with stapled securities was not a condition of their offer.

[COLIN]

I cant quite understand why the s/p hasnt rocketed back up after confirmation that Canadians still buying and that legislation doesnt change things.

I share your puzzlement, Peat.
My stance is this: There must now be a strong chance that the Canadians will reach the 40% and that the votes in favour will go over 50%. The number of shares offered to them will likely be not many more than 40% so there will be very little scaling back. Therefore willing sellers, like me, should get most of our shares away at the offer price, leaving a very small portion of our holding exposed to the shrinking market price. So, those who have been scooping up today's bounty are onto a winner, at the expense of the wimps.
No doubt someone will attempt to shoot holes in my thinking, but it seems a pretty fair argument and I have no intention to withdraw my offer (under the Facility Acceptance) so that I can dump on the market.
And while I'm at it: I fail to understand this xenophobic attitude that several have expressed on this thread. Thank goodness the Scots don't seem to have felt the same way about IFT taking control (NOT 40%) of Glasgow/Prestwick Airport, or the English about Kent, or the Poles about Lubeck, or the Uruguayans about NZS buying up thousands of hectares of their good dairy land - and there are countless other cases of Kiwi investment abroad.................let capital flow freely, I say, unless there is a manifestly strong case against it on the grounds of a particular country's strategic interests, e.g. North Korean ownership of a uranium mine (should we ever uncover one!)

[dsurf]

Colin - not shooting you down but I think things have changed. With stapled securities the returns for Auck city council (manakau is zenophobic & financially illiterate) would have been far larger - 20m pa or so - this would mean less rates to be paid - so there were good reasons for Auck city to approve the bid & not sell into it. With the end of stapled securities there is no real compelling case for Auck council to "approve" the bid. This means they will oppose it (as per john banks article in the herald a week before the "decision" - we have as much democracy as Iraq ). So Auk has 12.5% , Manuakau 10?, IFT & Govt 10?
= 32.5% who will not approve, so reaching 50% seems less likely.

[COLIN]

Colin - not shooting you down but I think things have changed. With stapled securities the returns for Auck city council (manakau is zenophobic & financially illiterate) would have been far larger - 20m pa or so - this would mean less rates to be paid - so there were good reasons for Auck city to approve the bid & not sell into it. With the end of stapled securities there is no real compelling case for Auck council to "approve" the bid. This means they will oppose it (as per john banks article in the herald a week before the "decision" - we have as much democracy as Iraq ). So Auk has 12.5% , Manuakau 10?, IFT & Govt 10?
= 32.5% who will not approve, so reaching 50% seems less likely.

Agreed less likely, but still quite on the cards. And even if the present deal falls over I am sure there will be further positive developments; thus, yesterday's sell-off seems overdone. ("Buy-up" for the wiser ones, I feel.)
We shall see.

[dsurf]

yesterday was overdone - the Canadians will still want a stake and maybe the model they are working on has reduced to $3.00 or thereabouts. I would suggest that if this 40% bid fails they will return with a $3.00 offer for 19.9% and then play a game like Origin stalking CEN - long way to go & a fund with billions

[Grimy]

Sorry to ask as I'm sure the answer is in thread somewhere, but what date do the voting papers have to be returned by?