OEL - (Otto) Multi based, Gambling Stock.

[shasta]

ChCh meetings have always been the week after the ASX quarterlies Tricha. Feb/May/Aug/Nov. Always plenty to talk about at those times. Next one beginning of May, possibly to be hosted by Bermuda.

I should be back to health & employment sometime early April, so shall endeavour to make the May meeting.

Would be good to catch up again Serpie...

[Misc]

"I believe OEL with Galoc will do something similar to what NZO did re Tui"

Are you expecting a SP retreat like NZO and PPP after Tui flowed?

Misc

[tricha]

"I believe OEL with Galoc will do something similar to what NZO did re Tui"

Are you expecting a SP retreat like NZO and PPP after Tui flowed?

Misc

Tui would be $2.00 if the market had not tanked, Otto would be at least 50 cents.
But hey it is now and Mr Market is very angry, who knows.

[shasta]

"I believe OEL with Galoc will do something similar to what NZO did re Tui"

Are you expecting a SP retreat like NZO and PPP after Tui flowed?

Misc

Misc

NZO's management were notorious for the way they treated there shareholders (& trust me i was one for 3 years!), & putting there snouts in the trough.

Forget the state of the markets at present (otherwise like Tricha said, both NZO & OEL would be on much higher SP's), but sentiment has affected NZO, due to it's past.

OEL's management is VERY good, & the Board is outstanding.

My point on that comparison is:

1. The Tui JV - largely achieved the flow rates anticipated
2. The total reserves were upgraded (now twice)
3. Water cut has been kept in check, & may even be better than expected.
4. Successfully choking back the flow rate has ensured the longevity of the project.

The Galoc JV looks to be in the same position regarding points #1, 3 & 4.

#2 remains to be seen, though i believe Galoc will be upgraded beyond the anticipated 2P reserves (around 23.5mmbo).

OEL has come out & done what NZO should have months ago.

Tell your shareholders what you intend using the cashflows for!

Come the end of 2008 when Calauit is online, OEL will have more than double the daily oil that NZO has, (5000 - 6000bopd) v OEL (3000 Galoc + 12000 Calauit).

Best bit is we paid $US9.20/bbl (including debt) for the Galoc acquistion when the POO was around $US75.

The Galoc oil will be sold at a small discount to the Brent price (currently around $US100).

I've assumed around $US90 = $A100/bbl in my previous revenue calculations, so there is some upside should the POO remain above $US90.

The rising $A v the $US, counters some of the upside however.

The above is why i sold NZO & bought OEL among others...

[Misc]

Fair enough. The likely drilling of Galoc 5 and 6 next year should help as well. Just hope their SP doesnt catch the 'tui bird flu' .Misc

[shasta]

Fair enough. The likely drilling of Galoc 5 and 6 next year should help as well. Just hope their SP doesnt catch the 'tui bird flu' .Misc

At the moment OEL's SP is suffering due to the large placement @ 30c to fund the Galoc acquistion.

As soon as the share price hits 34c the sellers show up & put a dampner on it...

For now we seem to be in a rather tight 30 - 34c trading range

[shasta]

Just when everything was lining up nicely...

I hope the market in general doesnt see this article...

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/storypage...StoryId=112176

Otto Energy sees first oil in Philippines in April

Reuters

SINGAPORE - Australia-based Otto Energy Ltd. will see its first oil field come onstream in April in the Philippines, but it has deferred the start of the Calauit field to end-2009 at the earliest, the head of the company said on Friday.

First oil from the 17,500 barrel-per-day (bpd) Galoc field, which will boost the Philippines' small oil production by around 70 percent, is expected to be on target in the third week of April, Alex Parks, the firm's chief executive, told Reuters in a telephone interview.

But Otto's Calauit field, initially expected to come onstream in December 2007, or this quarter, will not start production until at least 2009 as the company decided last year it needed further information on the reservoir.

"Production will start late 2009 or early 2010. That's because we are doing it in a different way," Park said, referring to how the field will be developed.

[skyhigh]

first timer, small holder of oel
shasta how do u see this announcement (re last posting) affecting the shareprice
would love to hear your thoughts, cheers

[shasta]

first timer, small holder of oel
shasta how do u see this announcement (re last posting) affecting the shareprice
would love to hear your thoughts, cheers

I hope the general market doesn't catch wind of it, to be honest.

Friday was down on the DOW, so in this environment any bad news/delays/cost overruns seem to get lashed by the market.

We don't want to repeat the problems that AED had (with 100% of Puffin) & not get it right.

This would be a big project where OEL is the operator (having 99% of Calauit), & it is probably prudent to re-assess things prior to fully committing to it.

I would like to see OEL farm down to 50% of Calauit to reduce the risk.

In the short term i expect OEL to do well when Galoc comes online during April, & we should see a SP north of 40c.

Of course if the US goes down the drain (& it's heading that way) then the market may overlook OEL.

At present OEL has strong support at 30c, which is the price the large placement was priced at.

[Misc]

Oh dear! Just read the last quarterly which stated Calauit would start later this year. Now 6 weeks later its slipped out to 2010? And this market sensitive 'event' has been 'released' via the media? Surely the ASX will have something to say about this?
I also notice 16m shares will come out of escrow next week. Are these from the 30c placement Shasta? I thought they were escrowed for 12 months? All abit smelly and confusing to me.

Misc