AUD.USD

[macduffy]

Fundamentally we are overdue a rally in the US $ - and I'm not talking about recent comments made by Bernanke that have seen the US $ stage a small rally - I'm talking over the medium term. In the next year, IMO, the US $ will surge, and those things that act as counterweights to the US $ will fall.

Hi Psk - May I call you that?
What do you see as the catalysts for a medium term rally in the USD?
I imagine that interest rates will turn up but it will also need an improvement in the bop and in consumer confidence, amongst other things? Or are we looking at a comparative decline in the fortunes of other major economies as the trigger?

Cheers

[Packersoldkidney]

Hi Psk - May I call you that?
What do you see as the catalysts for a medium term rally in the USD?
I imagine that interest rates will turn up but it will also need an improvement in the bop and in consumer confidence, amongst other things? Or are we looking at a comparative decline in the fortunes of other major economies as the trigger?

Cheers

You can call me anything, just don't call me That.

Europe has yet to see the effects of the sub-prime/credit crunch - they will though - I expect Europe, economically to be comparitively weak compared to other places on the globe. This will affect the Euro - which is the US $ major competitor in terms of a currency.

Deflation has already arrived in real-estate and in stock markets - and it looks as if it is affecting gold now as well. Gold is a leading indicator for where oil is about to go. With the air out of the commodities bubble that will leave a lot of money with no place to go - and in the current recessionary environment that means Cash is King.

Fundamentally the US $ is looking good, in terms of future expectations the US Fed will choose to fight inflation over keeping a 'stronger' economy - just as they have done in every other recession in living memory: meaning higher interest rates. Other economies around the world have just about reached the end of their interest rate raising cycles - the US Fed hasn't even started its yet. And it will have to start, because elsewise it is putting its hands up and saying: "these high prices, and especially high oil prices, are here to stay", which clearly it can't, and wont, do.

It was the Fed that really started the commodities bubble by allowing an easy carry trade, and now it is going to have to go in the other direction - bump interest rates up, in which case the US $ will follow.

I think we are about to enter a deflationary period, with the best asset class being cash, and you can't get better legal tender around the globe better than the US $.

[slam]

You can call me anything, just don't call me That.

......This will affect the Euro - which is the US $ major competitor in terms of a currency.


.........and you can't get better legal tender around the globe better than the US $.

Hi Packers
YEN in both cases imo
This will keep pressure on the US and I think will be the next big mover in currency


Just a thought :O)

Cheers
Slam

[dumbass]

aud starting to look toppy

theres a lot of fib levels around 98 50 - 98 70

still believe it will have crack at 1 but maybe time for a rest

looking to short from confirmed entry at break of upper trendline

[dumbass]

price has now corrected starting to look good for going long 96 00 area

[speres]

Arco, couldnt agree more.

Hopefully I can add some value Roddy.

[peat]

The RBA will announce its rate decision at 2.30pm AEST

[dumbass]

aud starting to look toppy

theres a lot of fib levels around 98 50 - 98 70

still believe it will have crack at 1 but maybe time for a rest

looking to short from confirmed entry at break of upper trendline

hey peat , key level for aud at moment, technically a close below 2008 up trendline but

needs confirmation.

i was shaping up for a long but my feeling is the aussie is going to break to the downside

which should give some good pips, may bounce of here but i'm starting to see dollar bullish

signs across the majors. which may mean 98 was the top looks like a terminal wedge

pattern

any thoughts

[peat]

agree that its a key level... on the daily its done a 78% retracement of the last leg up so that the gartley trade would be to buy with @ 9565 with stop at 9470 target 9710 ...so thats risk 95 for 145 gain... not that I'm doing that trade but its the way I see it. and of course if it broke 9470 that would be a failed gartely and turn into a bearish scenario

on the weekly tho the trend line could be a bit lower than you suggest?

using Netdania for the weekly and it sets the lines of the lows precisely.

[dumbass]

i suppose it can be a subjective issue , personally i would draw the trendline on the

monthly slightly higher to have an overshoot and catch the recent action but it leads

to a greater chance of a false break .

your trendline is more conservative

ha ha peat conservative ??

im watching gartley

thanks peat appreciate it