NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[AMR]

Or be a party pooper, or rain on anyones parade. Has any of you nzo traders/investors considered what would happen in a world recession to the price of oil? It would go down very quickly. Why do I think this? Because I have seen this happen in the 1970's. Gold at the time went to $US850 approximately, which in real terms is about $US2000. The United states of America is now in a recession. Bermuda, have you run the forecasts you are making on the nzo returns or the Pike River Company, if the world goes into recession? China alone cannot be a driver of the world economy if the USA "hits the wall". China's GDP is one eighth of the USA!

All I am saying is this share has a risk factor associated with the price of oil. I think the price of oil is the next bubble to burst. It's a stock for the day traders/traders!

You new investors, think very carefully of how much risk you are willing to take.

NZO is a great stock to trade if you know what you are doing. It is definately not a stock for beginners!

Anyway that's my opinion.



disc. ANZ, Platinum Int. Equities, Fisher Funds.

joey

Hi joey,

NZO is a very very tame oil stock. Have you seen the likes of OEL, PSA or BOW? I'm sure most of the posters here will be out in a second if the smart money starts dumping in big volumes.

[COLIN]

Thankfully no-one seems to have frightened us yet with another risk - Nationalisation! With NZOG doing so well, and the increasing, irrational, anger being vented against the "oil barons" by the unthinking masses, what's the bet that the extreme left of the socialist wing of the Labour Party aren't going to raise this possibility? Labour's extremely poor showing in the polls must have it desperately casting round for a "circuit breaker" - and, after all, they didn't hesitate to stymie the sale of 40% of AIA to an overseas party, on the spurious grounds that the country's strategic interests were at stake. What could be more "strategic" in Labour Party Speak, in the current climate, than New Zealand's very own oil producer?
Perish the thought. I don't believe it would happen, at least not in the immediate future, but we are living in increasingly desperate times. Hugh Chavez is no doubt increasing in popularity amongst the Venezuelan masses.
Sorry to have raised the thought, but someone is bound to, sooner or later.

[bermuda]

Or be a party pooper, or rain on anyones parade. Has any of you nzo traders/investors considered what would happen in a world recession to the price of oil? It would go down very quickly. Why do I think this? Because I have seen this happen in the 1970's. Gold at the time went to $US850 approximately, which in real terms is about $US2000. The United states of America is now in a recession. Bermuda, have you run the forecasts you are making on the nzo returns or the Pike River Company, if the world goes into recession? China alone cannot be a driver of the world economy if the USA "hits the wall". China's GDP is one eighth of the USA!

All I am saying is this share has a risk factor associated with the price of oil. I think the price of oil is the next bubble to burst. It's a stock for the day traders/traders!

You new investors, think very carefully of how much risk you are willing to take.

NZO is a great stock to trade if you know what you are doing. It is definately not a stock for beginners!

Anyway that's my opinion.



disc. ANZ, Platinum Int. Equities, Fisher Funds.

joey

Yes , I do think about these things which are very real and important. And yes it could happen. We could have a crisis on our hands. But , perhaps naively I think we can get through..but at the same time oil goes ever higher. Look if I asked everyone here to save 30% you could do it. So i reckon the world could save 15% just like that. So we will struggle on but if you can see the formula....

Oil goes higher...and so does coal seam gas.

[COLIN]

Or be a party pooper, or rain on anyones parade. Has any of you nzo traders/investors considered what would happen in a world recession to the price of oil? It would go down very quickly. Why do I think this? Because I have seen this happen in the 1970's. Gold at the time went to $US850 approximately, which in real terms is about $US2000. The United states of America is now in a recession. Bermuda, have you run the forecasts you are making on the nzo returns or the Pike River Company, if the world goes into recession? China alone cannot be a driver of the world economy if the USA "hits the wall". China's GDP is one eighth of the USA!

All I am saying is this share has a risk factor associated with the price of oil. I think the price of oil is the next bubble to burst. It's a stock for the day traders/traders!

You new investors, think very carefully of how much risk you are willing to take.

NZO is a great stock to trade if you know what you are doing. It is definately not a stock for beginners!

Anyway that's my opinion.



disc. ANZ, Platinum Int. Equities, Fisher Funds.

joey

With all due respect, Joey, your disclosed portfolio could do with just a touch of excitement added to it! Go on, be daring, grab an energy stock or two!

[peat]

in response to Bermudas statement to me in the SKC thread fwiw heres some info from elliot wave.com which might provide an exit strategy for the current band of bug-eyed oilers.

[fish]

[QUOTE=malcolm;208220]don,t be suprised diigger to see a couple more----- inst---- 5% or more come 1st july (after option conversion) -----------you got to remember those who head these ----INSITUTIONS----- are accademics--- a bit slow on take up-- ex school teachers :rolleyes


From yesterdays asb investor report

KiwiSaver inflows would remain solid, Mr Atkins said, given greater contributions and high uptake - 2300 people signed up every day last month.

What is unclear is where the funds are being allocated.

Mr Atkins said the high voluntary uptake suggested a big proportion of the funds would be invested in growth assets.

"This will provide a boost to the financial services industry, with greater funds under management also potentially boosting local equity markets."




there could be a lot of new investment heading into nzo-best to get in before the next financials reflect the current record prices nzo should be getting for TAPIS
I suspect tomorrows sp performance might be a pleasant surprise

[Corporate]

[QUOTE=fish;208316]

don,t be suprised diigger to see a couple more----- inst---- 5% or more come 1st july (after option conversion) -----------you got to remember those who head these ----INSITUTIONS----- are accademics--- a bit slow on take up-- ex school teachers :rolleyes


From yesterdays asb investor report

KiwiSaver inflows would remain solid, Mr Atkins said, given greater contributions and high uptake - 2300 people signed up every day last month.

What is unclear is where the funds are being allocated.

Mr Atkins said the high voluntary uptake suggested a big proportion of the funds would be invested in growth assets.

"This will provide a boost to the financial services industry, with greater funds under management also potentially boosting local equity markets."




there could be a lot of new investment heading into nzo-best to get in before the next financials reflect the current record prices nzo should be getting for TAPIS
I suspect tomorrows sp performance might be a pleasant surprise

Your right. I have personally been working with one of the Kiwisaver providers and the government kick start is huge to start with!

[Dr_Who]

Joey, I think you should read the research reports on NZO. Most analyst have factored the likelihood of an oil correction, hence the valuation is very conservation and based on the oil price at $100bbl. Currently the oil price is trading at $136bbl, so there is alot of margins in the valuation.

I am very comfortable buying into a company with good reserves and good cashflow with a very conservative valuation model.

Good investing everyone.

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;207742][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;207051]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,
69 PIETRADE 220c,70 ZAC 197c, 71,CAM 245C,72, CHALICE 214c,
73 GLENDOONIE 142c 74,UPSIDE_UMOP 159c,

[trackers]

Or be a party pooper, or rain on anyones parade. Has any of you nzo traders/investors considered what would happen in a world recession to the price of oil? It would go down very quickly. Why do I think this? Because I have seen this happen in the 1970's. Gold at the time went to $US850 approximately, which in real terms is about $US2000. The United states of America is now in a recession. Bermuda, have you run the forecasts you are making on the nzo returns or the Pike River Company, if the world goes into recession? China alone cannot be a driver of the world economy if the USA "hits the wall". China's GDP is one eighth of the USA!

All I am saying is this share has a risk factor associated with the price of oil. I think the price of oil is the next bubble to burst. It's a stock for the day traders/traders!

You new investors, think very carefully of how much risk you are willing to take.

NZO is a great stock to trade if you know what you are doing. It is definately not a stock for beginners!

Anyway that's my opinion.



disc. ANZ, Platinum Int. Equities, Fisher Funds.

joey

In a global recession I definitely would not want to be in managed funds... nor finance-related companies, nor retail - Which, to be honest, looks like exactly what you're in!!

A few of the knockers here believe that the hype surrounding NZO is directly related to the price of oil. I'm afraid thats not true at all.....

PRC is post $2, and is about to start exporting coal on contracts worth triple what they were last year. It is a NZSX50 company, NZO owns a third.

Kupe has been cruising along, and will be in production next year.

TUI has been stunning.... Has been absolutely creaming it, with production wayyy above expectations, very little water cut, and we've seen its probable reserves double. Investment pay back was extremely quick, and the time it took to bring it into production has set records... The price of oil is the icing on the cake.

Global demand for oil keeps increasing, and will continue to increase, global recession or not... And NZO will keep creaming it (even below $100 a barrel which is looking extremely unlikely in the short term)