NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[upside_umop]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4655855a6160.html

Oil burning power stations are essential to ensure New Zealand does not suffer blackouts in the future, National leader John Key said today.

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This is good news for local oil and gas - and national
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[Mr Tommy]

I cant see oil price dropping too much more, certainly not to $38.

All OPEC and the other producers have to do is slightly turn off the taps again. They can make up any number of reasons. Im sure theyre quite happy to let it drop a bit like it has, stops everyone moaning and they find something else to complain about, meanwhile they are still banking their zillions.

[duncan macgregor]

Just out of interest lets have a few opinions on the following question.
If the market crashes simply because the price of oil hits $200 a barrel will the share price of NZO trend up with increased profits or trend down with market sentiment.

I say the share price would follow the market down ignoring company fundamentals.
If i am right and the market crashes because of the price of oil what happens next?.
No personal attacks please just an honest opinion. Macdunk

[Crypto Crude]

good question mackdunk, now you are being more constructive...
Right now, I would say that the market is not going to crash so your question is stuffed...
a bit of sideways for the next year and A down trending market perhaps to 9k Dow...maybe 500 there, 300 there... Too much has already been taken away for a crash to then hit...(eg 1500pts, 2000pts)...
The market is already cheap...

Look at what happened in 1987... the market crashed from The tip of its heights... this has been a controlled fall, mainly because the FED and other central banks have stepped in and bailed whoever out, with the get out of jail free card...
In reference to your question...
In a crash, Id say that all oil stocks would trend down with the market apart from one... ... and its not NZO... hahaha...

.^sc

[Chalice]

Macdunk,

I thought that the purpose of this forum (NOG thread) was for constructive discussion about the issues concerning NOG. As a shareholder in NOG, I would rather hear all the negative possiblities about NOG as this gives me more information and, next to cash, timely and accurate information is king. However, some your posts are not constructive or informative. I don't care if you are holding all your cash in rupees or rubles, it is neither informative nor constructive. Nor is general speculation that the market is going to crash in 12 or 18 months time. All markets correct at some point.

Back on topic, the one big concern IMHO for NOG shareholders is the cash pile. Makes the company vulnerable to a t/o and also it makes me nervous as an investor as I have no idea where that money is going to be spent. I also hope that they are managing the currency exposure.

If it softens tomorrow afternoon, I will be putting my money where my nmouth is.

Hi gazprom,

re: currency, aparently all $ associated with KUPE project is in USD (not sure figure but its significant) & its my understanding the rest in in NZD, at this stage. Would have been good to have a proportion converted to USD post excise!

On another matter, the gas line to Maui is not going to be a money making venture but a reaction to the fact the consent to burn gas is unlikely to be renewed when it expires ...? soonish.

I'm sure NZO would have had liked to announce the couple of projects they are looking at getting into developing by now, probably just a few milestones being pushed out.

[upside_umop]

Hi MacDunk,

It depends under the circumstances that oil hits $200 a barrel.

If it was because the oil market hasnt been transparent enough, and demand/supply were out of balance (without interference from geopolitical), this would be more of a long term feature, which should push oil stocks up.

If it was because things got heated up with the USA/Russia/Iran then we could see oil easily hit $200 but wouldnt be sustainable long term. I would then think it would be slightly positive for NZO, but not hugely. Also depends on their producing assets at the time.

Those are two extreme cases...I think the latter would be more probable at this time, and not sustainable, since demand destruction has already hit a number of countries.

[duncan macgregor]

SHREWDY, Your CUE dropped today. It looks like five bob each way would rocket that companies share price. A controled fall is only a crash in slow motion with the long term investor left holding the baby. Will the rising price of oil after the games wrecking the market raise or lower the NZO share price?. Macdunk [trying to keep you honest]

[dsurf]

MacD - keep on posting. I like the humour and it would be very boring if we all had the same opinion.

If oil was $200 then NZO would make approx $2m a day revenue & $1m in profit (I am assuming an upgrade & Kupe proceeding to plan). So if NZO SP fell then there would be more cash than the SP. Not assets, but cash, so it could not fall too far.

It would rise very very strongly - look at sentiment towards NZO when oil rushed up $149 - everyone loved it! They would love it even more at $200

[Nitaa]

Just out of interest lets have a few opinions on the following question.
If the market crashes simply because the price of oil hits $200 a barrel will the share price of NZO trend up with increased profits or trend down with market sentiment.

I say the share price would follow the market down ignoring company fundamentals.
If i am right and the market crashes because of the price of oil what happens next?.
No personal attacks please just an honest opinion. Macdunk

Subjective but here is my view. Oil climbs to $200 within 12 months nzo will be well north of $2.50 this time next year even if the market crashes (again subjective and what is a crash). I would argue that Chinas stock market has already crashed

Biggest influnce in overall global markets is the credit crunch.

[arjay]

Just out of interest lets have a few opinions on the following question.
If the market crashes simply because the price of oil hits $200 a barrel will the share price of NZO trend up with increased profits or trend down with market sentiment.

I say the share price would follow the market down ignoring company fundamentals.
If i am right and the market crashes because of the price of oil what happens next?.
No personal attacks please just an honest opinion. Macdunk

If the NZO SP tanks because of a crashing market, but oil is above $200/ barrel, the best thing NZO could do is to buy the idiots out on the cheap and go private.