BLT - Blis Technologies

[simla]

I haven't heard of dropshipping before. It's fascinating.

Dropshipping is a hot new trend - the new key to being a net retailer. The dropshipper, the new version of a wholesaler, supplies the goods directly to the end customer instead of to the retailer, complete with an invoice customised for the retailer. The retailer only has to put up a website advertising the goods, take the orders, and take the money. The dropshipper does everything else. Apparently, the end purchaser usually does not know that the dropshipper was involved, so it makes it easy to start a net business with no up-front stock or delivery hassles to worry about - just a website and a payment system. Very clever. You need to be a bit careful that you choose a good dropshipper, as your own reputation as a net retailer can only be as good as the dropshipper's services.

Apparently, some people selling on ebay are doing nothing but listing products from dropshippers, and don't even have the hassle of delivery to worry about, let alone having bought the product in the first place, or even putting up a website or payment system. Okay, nobody will read the rest of this. You'll be too busy setting up an e-tail business as soon as you can. It does sound like money for jam.

But it also means for products like Blis that listing at a dropshipper makes it easy for lots of other sellers to "stock" your product, as it costs them almost nothing to do so. They just have to add a product page to their website.

It seems that one of the Japanese sites I mentioned is a successful and reputable dropshipper, although I won't say which one in case my foreign language translations are somehow in error. They look like they have extensive connections - they have over 2000 products for sale in the health and beauty section alone, for example. They also helpfully can list their products in sales order (or that's how I read it via translation), presumably for the retailers' benefit, and Epoca seems (via translation) to have made it up to page 45 of 47 in health and beauty after being available for one week. Obviously that is no measure of repeat sales, but would nevertheless suggest some interest in getting hold of the thing.

It makes me wonder how many of the US sites are selling via dropshippers, too. Dropshipping started in the US apparently. However, I wonder who pays for the marketing, or even bothers to do it at all, in such a situation? The dropshipper has little to gain, as they are selling as many different products as possible presumably, while the net retailer is presumably trying to minimise effort all round anyway. Maybe this is why Blis are pushing the global branding idea - to reflect the modern net retail market?

Anyway, the use of dropshipping would seem to raise the possibility that Blis sales might move faster than expected initially due to potentially large numbers of websites listing it straight away.

[fungus pudding]

I haven't heard of dropshipping before. It's fascinating.

Dropshipping is a hot new trend - the new key to being a net retailer. The dropshipper, the new version of a wholesaler, supplies the goods directly to the end customer instead of to the retailer, complete with an invoice customised for the retailer. The retailer only has to put up a website advertising the goods, take the orders, and take the money. The dropshipper does everything else. Apparently, the end purchaser usually does not know that the dropshipper was involved, so it makes it easy to start a net business with no up-front stock or delivery hassles to worry about - just a website and a payment system. Very clever. You need to be a bit careful that you choose a good dropshipper, as your own reputation as a net retailer can only be as good as the dropshipper's services.

Apparently, some people selling on ebay are doing nothing but listing products from dropshippers, and don't even have the hassle of delivery to worry about, let alone having bought the product in the first place, or even putting up a website or payment system. Okay, nobody will read the rest of this. You'll be too busy setting up an e-tail business as soon as you can. It does sound like money for jam.

But it also means for products like Blis that listing at a dropshipper makes it easy for lots of other sellers to "stock" your product, as it costs them almost nothing to do so. They just have to add a product page to their website.

It seems that one of the Japanese sites I mentioned is a successful and reputable dropshipper, although I won't say which one in case my foreign language translations are somehow in error. They look like they have extensive connections - they have over 2000 products for sale in the health and beauty section alone, for example. They also helpfully can list their products in sales order (or that's how I read it via translation), presumably for the retailers' benefit, and Epoca seems (via translation) to have made it up to page 45 of 47 in health and beauty after being available for one week. Obviously that is no measure of repeat sales, but would nevertheless suggest some interest in getting hold of the thing.

It makes me wonder how many of the US sites are selling via dropshippers, too. Dropshipping started in the US apparently. However, I wonder who pays for the marketing, or even bothers to do it at all, in such a situation? The dropshipper has little to gain, as they are selling as many different products as possible presumably, while the net retailer is presumably trying to minimise effort all round anyway. Maybe this is why Blis are pushing the global branding idea - to reflect the modern net retail market?

Anyway, the use of dropshipping would seem to raise the possibility that Blis sales might move faster than expected initially due to potentially large numbers of websites listing it straight away.

A lot of products on Amazon are supplied to the purchaser from a 3rd party. Have been for ages. It's a damn nuisance when you 'add items to your cart' then checkout to find each one must be shipped separately at separate cost because they are not being suppied by Amazon, who obviously just clip the ticket. I see a huge downside to the system and that is it makes it extremely easy for any two-bit manufacturer to get up and running, so the marketplace will become hugely competitive. i.e. as soon as any newly developed product proves popular clones will be just as easily be available in no time.

[simla]

We sure are motoring through the pages since you've been doing all this quoting, Funguspudding!

Yes, I agree that dropshipping potentially changes quite a few rules. At least with Amazon they tell you that someone else is involved. But dropshipping generally raises the idea of being invisible, so that there appears to be widespread market acceptance when there has only really been a whole lot of virtual stores popped up. I've been surprised how many US sites Blis has shown up on, but also surprised that they seem to just put up the same sales blurb everywhere. Well, dropshipping is one possible explanation. Perhaps some have not been buying and stocking the product at all, just putting up a web page. The NZ on-line pharmacies, by comparison, appear to be genuine pharmacies with real stocks.

[emearg]

I note on Stuff.co.nz that BLT is up 80% today.

It would be great to see BLT go over 10 cents...

[Cannibal]

Yep - the 5 cent aberration has gone. That was weird.


My pick is that they will stay in the low 9 cents until an announcement. And they are not the best at keeping the market informed...

[simla]

Yes, Emearg, but an 80% gain is so far not the biggest mover for the day. Another share's 90% gain followed such good news as "Suspension of Securities Lifted", "Resolves Bank Issues" and "Further Capital Raising"...

I've been putting up news from research because I instinctively feel things must be happening visibly now, as indeed is turning out to be the case to some degree. But it is a bit unreal now, isn't it? The good news is on the table, but real ongoing results are needed to make it seem real.

(I'm sorry I have edits on so many of my posts. They are almost always typos. I do check before I post, but somehow I don't see them until I've posted.)

[simla]

Predictions on half-year revenue? Well, in early July, I apparently pondered about half-year revenue, " NZ (170) + US (500) + Aus (50) + Asia (100) + other revenue (150) = $970k MIGHT be achievable this half year. " Halving standing cost of say $1.4m pa to 700k would then have left a profit of maybe $250k. Depends what costs attach to the preference money, too. And that assumes we don't quibble about capitalising the research costs, but that is probably reasonable.

But the excellent news in late July supercedes that. Looking at the press release of 31 July: For a starter, we were told a "substantial sum" has been paid for this unknown research "over the coming months". Then also, we might think that sales into Japan and Taiwan may be somewhat more than trivial after all this half year, so 100k there may be understating it. Doubled sales in NZ to June - hard to say what that might do, but 170 seems more likely a minimum than a maximum in that case for the half year. The US would seem to be the big unknown. We have no way of knowing whether it is ticking over or booming.

So, after that scientific analysis (!) my gut feeling is that several hundred thousand profit for the half year still remains a possibility, with even the possibility of a surprise on the upside. Frankly, though, it is a sheer guess as we have so little to work on. We do know that Blis can make several millions profit before they have to pay tax though, due to accumulated losses. Could it actually make yet another loss though? Well, yes, it just seems unlikely now with so many markets on the boil.

What are you picking yourself, Emearg? Anyone? And what effect do you think that could have on the share price?

[Cannibal]

Excellent conjecture!

The shares seem undervalued to me. Whoever picked them up recently for 5 cents must be laughing.

M18 is the real key to riches IMO. If is effective against tooth decay then the sky is the limit. Blis say, "Sales of the new Blis M18 occurred in June of this year."

I am assuming that it it not yet a product on general availability yet as I can't find it advertised anywhere.

America in particular, and the world in general, is obsessed about tooth hygeine and decay. Just imagine if Colgate put in their toothpaste - now there is a volume market! A dollar a share minimum!

[Chippie]

Okay Simla, I will have a crack at the half year figures

2008 figures
Total Revenue $1.1M
Sales 6 months = $158K
Sales 2nd 6 months = $450K
"other" Revenue = $539K
Deficit = $487K

2009 half year (my guess)
Sales = $600K
Other Revenue = $250K
Profit = $50K

On the news release of BLT half year result the share price will go to 18 cents.

The full year profit in 2010 will explode to $500K and the share price goes to 40 cents on a P/E ratio of 12 (or is that just wishful thinking?). At this point we all pat ourselves on the back for buying lots of shares at 4 cents and we have a share holder meeting in Rarotonga 

[simla]

Thanks. Chippie. We seem to be on the same page, but different ideas on just how far the sales will have gone. That really is the interesting bit, of course. By the way, though, not sure you haven't moved the decimal point on that 40 cents calculation for 138 million shares.

Anyone else want to hazard a guess? Remember, we don't know what size the M18 sale might have been (or if there's been another). Neither do we know about the trial in the large retail chain for Q4 2009 - I would have thought expected initial sales for that would have to be booked into this half year. Plus Blis has undoubtedly been busy elsewhere so there may be progress somewhere.