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As Yankiwi mentioned: "... (yes I've clicked on the "add to reputation" icon on so many of your posts, it wont let me add to yours anymore) "
Me too! There's obviously some sort of conspiracy afoot. After all, if too many of us acheive enlightenment from studying alongside Phaedrus the whole capitalist system could collapse (again).
Seriously Phaedrus, the first thing i do at logon is scan all the thread folders to see if you have another post up for contemplation. If so, i contemplate for a bit before moving over to login to DB trading. Like so many of the other shy newbies young & old here who are benefiting from your contributions, the only reason for a lack of discussion in reply is simple ignorance (in my case) & not wanting to add too much to the background noise. Should add straight away how much i appreciate also those like Hoop just now who do have the ability to contribute on the topic.
Meanwhile my largely instinctual approach has made me a bit risk averse lately, & more inclined to cash in a few chips here & there. When i see a new Phaedrus chart with all those red queries all over the index ahead, it does make me nervous!
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Hi Phaedrus
Thanks again for your posts
This "joke" of predicting the NZX50 has come to be very interesting.
Re support and ressitance on indicies, would you normally look back 4-5 years on a stock and if not is the long term index S & R's then going to help determine whether you are going to enter a trade
Thoughts anyone
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I think a bull market correction is coming... 10% looks about right.
as does 3240 target back to 2,900
but then again, it might be a bit early in the bull market for a 10% correction, yuo might only get 5%
“If you're worried about falling off the bike, you’d never get on.”
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Member
Sir P,
no to 5, yes to 6, and i have to 'spread some reputation around' before i add more to yours. scamper's university papers means that eyes are mostly off the ball, so i haven't taken sensible precautions or grabbed opportunities this year -- all a bit sad really...
Anyway, thanks for the posts. cheers from scamper.
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Originally Posted by Walfootrot
Hi Phaedrus - did you sell your stocks at the market peak of 4800 (?) in 2007 and buy back again in March 2009 at 2450? In other word does tracking of indices determine your investment strategy totally or are their other factors you take into account?
Wal, the philosophy behind my Index monitoring systems was exhaustively discussed here. My approach has been tuned and refined over the years, but in essence it remains the same as explained in that old post from 2007. There is further explanation in post #8 and others on that same thread. Did I keep to my system? Yes.
The NZSX50 peaked at 4333 and it had fallen to 4071 before most of my exit indicators were triggered. Similarly, the market bottomed at 2418 in March, but had risen to around 2600 by the time most of my "re-enter the market" indicators had fired. I did indulge in a few short-term trades on the way down, though, with mixed success. Many of my old charts have been bumped from the system but I am able to re-post any that are of particular interest to anybody. Just ask.
Yankiwi, if it hadn't been for your query I would never have stumbled across this interesting situation. I am sorry if you felt targeted by my rant - believe me that was never my intention and I apologise whole-heartedly if I have offended you in any way at all. My beef was with the lousy 250:1 reader/contributor ratio. There are too many overly shy lurkers here I reckon!
Thanks for the support, people. I appreciate it.
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Member
That would be me
Originally Posted by Phaedrus
My beef was with the lousy 250:1 reader/contributor ratio. There are too many overly shy lurkers here I reckon!
Lurker delurking here.
I read the forums daily, and I find your posts informative and useful in my decision making.
Having said that, I like being environmentally conscious about what I write. Too many pixels are wasted on useless comments ^_^
I try to post when I have something to say...which is rarely.
If the NZX50 hits 4300 on 19 Dec 2011 I'll send you a Xmas present and a few sacrificial goats your way.
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Nzx is still one of the worst performers on a return basis over the last 6 months does this mean we have a better chance of better returns going ahead to catch up with the rest or does this mean we will plunge quicker when the rest do?
one step ahead of the herd
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Pheadras,your posts are brilliant and have taught me heaps.
Over the last few years I have learned through you,regarding TA, to 'Keep It Simple' which is what I adhere to now,you are a great teacher with too much bloody time on his hands haha.
But seriously,you put a lot of time and effort into demonstrating the principles that Probably keep you profitable,ha.
The fact that so many people view your posts,must be uplifting even if they don't comment.
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Hoop,perhaps you could explain what all the colour coded lines are on your chart,I am presuming the red thin line is the nzx50? Much abliged.
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