BLT - Blis Technologies

[emearg]

So, Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to one and all. 2010 will be very interesting, I think. Thank you all for your posts and thoughts this year. Subsequent news hasn't yet shown our discussions to be too far off the ball. I've enjoyed everybody's ideas and everyone's company.

Ditto.....

[Cannibal]

Great news about the gum in Canada - ta for the excellent research again.

A browse of their site shows that it is available at top flight outlets all over the country already. Montreal has 40 outlets including GMC, Carrefour etc. Similar results for other large cities.

http://culturedcare.com/find-a-retailer/

The stars are aligning for Blis after all these years.

Have a great break everyone!

[tango]

Great news on the gum

I've bought Throat Guard daily and am trialing it for my throat. Will report back later

[emearg]

But at 10 -11 cents a share with a turnover less than a corner dairy...

The corner dairy comment/comparison is silly as a dairy has a very limited geographical target market and it is not likely to grow its revenue significantly this year, next year, or the year after.

On the other hand Blis is moving into more and more countries, and more and more markets, and it does look very likely to grow its revenue significantly this year, next year, and the year after.

I thought I would look back on the global availability of Blis products (excluding the Halitosis products that are pretty specialised and have been available in Aussi and the States for a few years now)

Up until the end of 2008 there were products in NZ. Population 4.3 million ( <0.1% of world population)

Then late in 2008 Ireland was added. Population 4.5 million ( <0.1% of world population)

North America joined in on the act around the same time. Population 308 million ( 4.5% of world population)

In mid to late 2009 Japan joined the game. Population 128 million ( 1.88% of world population)

In January 2010 Canada gets its gum. Population 34 million ( 0.5% of world population)

From less than a 10th of a percent of the world population to around 7% in a year is pretty good progress I reckon.

[fungus pudding]

The corner dairy comment/comparison is silly as a dairy has a very limited geographical target market and it is not likely to grow its revenue significantly this year, next year, or the year after.

On the other hand Blis is moving into more and more countries, and more and more markets, and it does look very likely to grow its revenue significantly this year, next year, and the year after.

And what must the revenue reach to produce sufficient profit to pay 1 cent per share dividend? IOW what revenue is required to make shares worth their current price?

[simla]

I'll have a guess, Fungus Pudding. I think maybe they might have to reach $3m revenue to make the first $1m profit. They seem to have standing costs of $1.3 to $1.5m, and there is obviously cost of manufacture to pay on any increased sales as well. So, without knowing the cost structure, I would hazard the total guess that $3m sales might produce the first $1m profit. Which is not exactly 1c per share, but neither is the current share price exactly 1c per share.

However, having said that, I would expect that profit would build quite quickly after that, because the standing costs only need to be covered once. With revenue over $1m this last half, revenue of at least $2m plus seems pretty likely for the full year, doesn't it? And that was with the market size of last half period. That was before the Costco market opened, and with Asia opening more, and more manufacturers in the US, and Canada and gum adding in, and M18 hitting the broader market soon (plus it being northern winter this half) - all starting this half we're told.

Which is why I think it perfectly possible that current turnover already justifies the current price, and things will grow from there fairly quickly. All just a guess though. As always with Blis, only time will tell.

[brucea]

Thank you Simla for your upbeat response to the less than positive comments that have been made on this post. You can call me a "Blis fan" if you like, but I think we should be supporting a NZ company that has such an innovative product and not belittling it. I have stuck with my Blis shares because I believe in their product, otherwise I would have baled out yonks ago. Merry Xmas to all and please excuse me for ending with this quote ""Every person has the power to make others happy. Some do it simply by entering a room -- others by leaving the room. Some individuals leave trails of gloom; others, trails of joy. Some leave trails of hate and bitterness; others, trails of love and harmony. Some leave trails of cynicism and pessimism; others trails of faith and optimism. Some leave trails of criticism and resignation; others trails of gratitude and hope. What kind of trails do you leave?" ~ William Arthur Ward

[emearg]

I have been thinking 4 million to achieve 1 million in profit. I have taken into account increased future costs, as Barry has signalled greater investment once positive cash flow is achieved. This will involve more product development, and I am guessing a greater regulatory spend.

Personally I would be happy for them to make only a small profit for the next few years IF they are spending bigger dollars on making the business grow.

I would rather the pie got big and then I had a piece than nibbling away on a tart for the next few years.

But then again I'm not hoping for a dividend from the ordinary shares any time soon. That is why I have been buying more preference shares lately. Maybe that skews my thinking?

Will 2010 be the year Blis gets rid of its penny dreadful status?

Or will Blis fail like BotryZen and Certified Organics to name just two that had similar beginnings?

It is interesting times...

[simla]

Thanks Brucea, but my optimism on Blis is just because that's how I see the facts. My quote might be: "The pessimist tells you how bad the wind is, the optimist tells you it will get better, and the realist just adjusts his sails." I'm probably more of a realist at heart than anything else. I'm pretty optimistic on Blis's future, but I'm keeping a very careful eye on the world economic forecast. Less optimism there!

Interesting point about deliberately increased investment in expansion, Emearg. Could be. They have been talking positive cash flow as the highest priority for a while now, though. There has been an awful lot of investment anyway, so I don't see that it has to threaten future growth.

So, Emearg and I have had a guess, Fungus Pudding. Care to have a stab yourself on revenue size and when it might happen? The next half year results should tell us a lot, as shareholders currently have almost no idea of the current rate of sales growth.

[Chippie]

I will have to stick with my previous guess below. Sales could be anything but we know it will be a huge increase on anything previoulsy. I will stick with a $500k full year profit (minimum) and a share price closer to 40 cents (with a lot of future growth to be factored in) than the 11 cents that it is now.

Okay Simla, I will have a crack at the half year figures

2008 figures
Total Revenue $1.1M
Sales 6 months = $158K
Sales 2nd 6 months = $450K
"other" Revenue = $539K
Deficit = $487K

2009 half year (my guess)
Sales = $600K
Other Revenue = $250K
Profit = $50K

On the news release of BLT half year result the share price will go to 18 cents.

The full year profit in 2010 will explode to $500K and the share price goes to 40 cents on a P/E ratio of 12 (or is that just wishful thinking?). At this point we all pat ourselves on the back for buying lots of shares at 4 cents and we have a share holder meeting in Rarotonga 