NZ 1st homebuyers are ScReWeD...

[duncan macgregor]

Watch the rents rise now ...
Weep, if you are a renter. Weep if you are an overstretched investor. And weep if you are a tax payer, as more of your tax will go where you least wanted it to go ...

Beakon you are dead right there. What will happen is landlords will flee the market which will lower house prices in the short term, and raise rents simply because of the supply and demand factor. The Govt will lose out long term with higher rent subsides with a greater poverty gap on lower income homeless families.
Lets face the facts.
1, Supply and demand rules prices in this market.
2, Hitting supply only increases demand which ends up in price rises.
3, Some one must own the house in the big picture it dous not matter who.
4, The money shortage in the productive sector is due soley by the public perception of the rip off merchants who feed from the trough while fleecing them from their hard earned savings.
5, This was the safest way the little man in a menial task job could end up rich with limited risk.
6,NZ will end up with the GOVT being forced to build state houses to house the masses then tax the living daylights out of the business sector to support it.
Thats what i think will happen guys its down hill all the way from here on in.
Any educated self respecting Kiwi will end up in Australia where they have a much higher life style so for me it looks like good bye Grand kids hope to visit you occasionaly. Macdunk

[fungus pudding]

Beakon you are dead right there. What will happen is landlords will flee the market which will lower house prices in the short term, and raise rents simply because of the supply and demand factor. The Govt will lose out long term with higher rent subsides with a greater poverty gap on lower income homeless families.
Lets face the facts.
1, Supply and demand rules prices in this market.
2, Hitting supply only increases demand which ends up in price rises.
3, Some one must own the house in the big picture it dous not matter who.
4, The money shortage in the productive sector is due soley by the public perception of the rip off merchants who feed from the trough while fleecing them from their hard earned savings.
5, This was the safest way the little man in a menial task job could end up rich with limited risk.
6,NZ will end up with the GOVT being forced to build state houses to house the masses then tax the living daylights out of the business sector to support it.
Thats what i think will happen guys its down hill all the way from here on in.
Any educated self respecting Kiwi will end up in Australia where they have a much higher life style so for me it looks like good bye Grand kids hope to visit you occasionaly. Macdunk

The houses will still exist. The demand will therefore not increase. All that may happen is a small % of properties might revert to owner occupiers. And every time that happens there is one rental property removed from the pool - and one tenant also. No change to suppply or demand.

[duncan macgregor]

I dont agree on that. What will happen landlords wont build new properties to rent out creating a shortage which in turn will raise the prices due to demand. Supply and demand is controled by new properties coming into the market to an increasing population. if however more people flee the country than come into the country then the demand and prices drop to meet the market. Great blocks of flats to rent out simply wont be built rents will rise the Govt will have to subsidize the needy with you and I my friend footing the bill.
The wisest and best leave leaving the dregs of society behind its natures way of improving the species. I should know coming from Scotland which is about as far away as one can get. Macdunk

[Dr_Who]

Just have to look at Aussie to see what may happen to the NZ property market.

[peat]

relevant article to the discussions going on in this thread
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10626604

one of the interesting things in that article is :

Shamubeel Eaqub, NZIER principal economist, criticised forecasts saying more houses were needed.
"There is no chronic undersupply of housing. If there was, rents would rise sharply. In the year to December, average rents fell by 0.5 per cent or -2.5 per cent in real terms," he said.
People claiming New Zealand had a severe housing shortage usually relied on declining numbers of people in houses.
But Eaqub said household size had increased in the past year "as usually happens in recessions".

[Dr_Who]

Rents have risen much higher in the Ponsonby Grey Lynn areas.

In the less desirable areas, the rents are still the same.

[fungus pudding]

I dont agree on that. What will happen landlords wont build new properties to rent out creating a shortage which in turn will raise the prices due to demand. Supply and demand is controled by new properties coming into the market to an increasing population. if however more people flee the country than come into the country then the demand and prices drop to meet the market. Great blocks of flats to rent out simply wont be built rents will rise the Govt will have to subsidize the needy with you and I my friend footing the bill.

Are you suggesting that if the govt. doesn't subsidize the needy that houses and flats will just remian vacant? It's an interesting theory, but I've never seen a market work that way. Mind you, I've never seen a subsidy hit its intended target anyway.

[beacon]

Rents have risen much higher in the Ponsonby Grey Lynn areas.

In the less desirable areas, the rents are still the same.

Listings up 20% now in waitakere since the beginning of this year, 10% in manukau. Empty and for sale houses now beginning to push rents higher. I hope the Government takes notice that a tsunami is building. It is still not to late to reconsider ...

For landlords who were overstretched but kept ploughing in more cash - living in hope that things will get better, the loss in property is just beginning to be crystallised. And this dollar of equity released, if any, is not going to go into the capital markets, as the beaureaucracy expects. Though industry is the wealth creation engine, property provided a temporary store of wealth while industry continued to blunder along. Given the immediate track record of wealth destruction in the capital markets for the uninformed, cash will be used simply to delever unless the Government has a magic wand that will turn Mr. and Mrs. Ordinary into Mr. and Mrs. Capital market gurus overnight ...

Also the impoverishment effect which will emanate from stagnating (at best, or falling) property markets will ripple through to the capital markets. As a nation, we begin our trek backwards, unless the Government stops and takes heed. If it doesn't as is sadly the case most times, the stretched landlord will be left with no option but do what he/she can't postpone/budget for any longer. Hope the Government has a damage control plan, as in a budget for increasing accomodation supplements or for constructing new social housing. Maybe they could help the chronically unemployed with this latter project ...

[beacon]

listings in Waitakere since jan 09 up 20% now
listings in Waitakere since jan 09 up 35% now (M&D and small landlords)
listings in Manukau since jan 09 up 11% now
listings in Manukau since jan 09 up 25% now (M&D and small landlords)

Rents to follow up ... watching this space ... hope the powers that be are noticing the pain and desperation ...

[fungus pudding]

Listings up 20% now in waitakere since the beginning of this year, 10% in manukau. Empty and for sale houses now beginning to push rents higher.

Economics 101. First day - before lunch. Empty houses and an abundance of listings reflect an oversupply, which will lead to falling rents; not rising. Landlords don't sit back and leave properties vacant for long waiting for rents to rise. They meet the market - and quickly. Most of them have such skinny profit margins (if any profit margin at all) that they can hardly just sit and wait even if they are silly enough to want to.