ALF - Allied Farmers Limited

[Dr_Who]

I ve been saying ALF will go to 5 cents for many months now. I still cant believe why anyone would pay a premium to the so called "NTA" for a high risk stock. Thats assume there are no more hidden nasties that can surprise us.

[Alan3285]

I ve been saying ALF will go to 5 cents for many months now. I still cant believe why anyone would pay a premium to the so called "NTA" for a high risk stock. Thats assume there are no more hidden nasties that can surprise us.

At this point I can't quite see it hitting 5c / share in the next two months - I'd guess 5.5 to 6.0c up to end of May 2010, but that is just a guess of course.

What timeframe are you talking about for 5c / share?

I could say it will hit $10 / share and never be wrong - as long as I don't say when it will get there... :-)


Alan.

[Dr_Who]

Sorry mate, I dont have a crystal ball. I wish I did. LOL

There is a good tarot card reading at Victoria Park market.

[Alan3285]

Sorry mate, I dont have a crystal ball. I wish I did. LOL

There is a good tarot card reading at Victoria Park market.

No worries - Just wondering if you had any real idea, or it was just something you were floating out there.

I do predict $10 / share by the way


Alan.

[minimoke]

What are your thoughts?

Alan.

Support at $0.070 now seems to have broken and its trending down. More punters reckon they can get in at $0.06 so that will be the next barrier. I reckon that can be breached hit in the next month. From there I reckon its still down hill. The full extent of the toxic debts still has to be worked out and the Budget may have some impact on the value of some assets. There are still a few Finance Companies looking shaky and this sector needs to do more to get investor confidence. Rural sector also looking shaky (rural sales dropping, values dropping?, debt exposures/tightening credit, NZ$) so its probaly more cautious / steady rather than feeling bullish.

Closed today at $0.064 (down to a new low)

[Silverlight]

Start of Feb ACC owned 5.5m, start of Mar they held 11.5m.

Will be interesting to see what they hold on April 1. Currently the largest holder of ALF.

[minimoke]

Start of Feb ACC owned 5.5m, start of Mar they held 11.5m.

Will be interesting to see what they hold on April 1. Currently the largest holder of ALF.

So they probably bought at $0.10 - $0.12 for a doubling in holding and halving (? now at $0.62) in value. If they want to sell they may be out of luck - theres only demand for 1.3m at the moment. And 500k are at $0.05 or less.

[J R Ewing]

Start of Feb ACC owned 5.5m, start of Mar they held 11.5m.

Will be interesting to see what they hold on April 1. Currently the largest holder of ALF.

Nice to see that they put our ACC levies to such good use

[Silverlight]

I don't believe this to be a negative as you see it, I think it was quite positive. ACC have a pretty good investment team, and there past investment record is very good.

2008 Annual Report
http://www.acc.co.nz/PRD_EXT_CSMP/id...lowInterrupt=1

2009 should be out in the next month.

[Alan3285]

I agree.

This is potentially a good fit for ACC. They (probably) don't need a dividend flow, so they can sit it out and let ALF get the maximum value out of the Hanover book over time.

It is only if ALF are forced into liquidating it quickly that they'll sub-optimise the value derived.

Alan.