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05-12-2012, 07:02 AM
#111
Member
In all seriousness I think if the price gets to the level in which Chorus has been re-valued to reflect a potential $150 million loss in revenue (Or even $50-100 million) it could be a very good buy.
The further it drops the risk of loss is mitigated and I would think there is a reasonable chance the Government will step in and veto any changes to Chorus charge rates.
Even at worst case scenario in which the ComCom recommendations are implemented, the stock will likely go back to previous levels over the long term (3-5 years) as more New Zealander's move towards UFB.
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05-12-2012, 09:07 AM
#112
being lazy I don't actually do much research but comparing the figures in the pre demerger phonebook and the figures from the 30/6/2012 annual report. The pre demerger report figures I assumed were what Chorus would have looked like without telecom. It's first year operating alone turnover has halved and I guess a "Statement of Changes in invested capital" must be very different to a statement of movement in equity as Chorus's Equity is only $527Mil market value at $3.00 per share is $1,155mil and the demerger document had 30/6/11 "invested capital" at $1,921mil. Turnover is almots half of the figures in the demerger document. can someone explain what the New Chorus special purpose financial statements in the demerger document actually represented.
Mind you based on 2012 eps of 26c we might have a company trading at 10 times LY earnings today. Although $160mil less would have made it an eps loss of 15cents per share.
The 25 cent dividend would be under pressure with these changes. Is the fibre network going to improve things much as customers will only be switching friom the old copper network.What do you think CNU is worth. What about in 2025 when govt investment becomes equity and shares in dividends. I know DYOR.
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05-12-2012, 09:26 AM
#113
Member
Looking at the depth, way too many small investors are trying to catch the falling knife to make a stab of quick profit. While on the selling side the orders are generally larger packages.
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05-12-2012, 10:04 AM
#114
Originally Posted by The BOWMAN
Looking at the depth, way too many small investors are trying to catch the falling knife to make a stab of quick profit. While on the selling side the orders are generally larger packages.
Overseas investors getting out, and AMP saying it is getting out.
Look for entry point of around $2.70?
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13-12-2012, 08:54 AM
#115
Good article by Chalkie today
Steep drop now at 2.72 with no buy signals ....Getting close to your entry point Balance?
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13-12-2012, 01:57 PM
#116
Originally Posted by Hoop
I want to see some big crossings first.
So no, still not yet.
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19-12-2012, 12:24 PM
#117
Originally Posted by Balance
I want to see some big crossings first.
So no, still not yet.
I am in.
$2.70 is where the buck stops.
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20-12-2012, 02:07 PM
#118
Originally Posted by David B
I see the price is up 2.59% today to $2.77. Just how many are you buying, Balance?
Not enough!
But enough to gain $$$ and buy the kids some lovely pressies this Christmas!
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20-12-2012, 04:29 PM
#119
Originally Posted by David B
So far, enuf to buy 'em all the latest Samsung Galaxy 3.
Good enuf?
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20-12-2012, 04:43 PM
#120
Originally Posted by David B
Actually how far do you think CNU has got to run? Just a bit off these current lows, or do you think this is a real good buying opportunity at historic lows because of the ComCom's actions, and the Govt. will soon sort them out. And the longer term future for the company is looking really bright. So get in now before it's too late???
Overseas funds have been dumping and that's their style.
Creates a short term situation but those of us who live long enough in NZ know that it's too small a country to get too tough on the essential services so the government always act to moderate any excesses, one way or the other.
I see CNU going back to $3.50 over the next 12 months.
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