PGW - PGG Wrightson

[Agrarinvestor]

I heard more and more chinese company exit from NYSE, and back list in hongkong or china stock market, Agria could do the same thing.

That is what i hope. The only question is with us small shareholer or without us. In the case they do it with a going privat first, the question about the compensation offer has
to be raised.
As Agria has done it's partial takeover for PGW, they have paid a price above shareholder assets, is that right ? I asume that Agria will pay the same to us shareholders. That would be above 4$.
In the other case they move with us to HSE it would be cheaper and better for Agrias reputation. HSE has strong lsiting requirements.

@Master, do you know which chinese companies have moved from US to HSE ?

[tim23]

Above $4.00? Gee I'd love that - can you explain your Maths Agrarinvester?

[Agrarinvestor]

Above $4.00? Gee I'd love that - can you explain your Maths Agrarinvester?

Hallo Tim,
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=GRO+...e+Sheet&annual
Current Market Cap is 42 Million. Stockholder equity is 228 Million US $ !!!!!

Mr. Lai own above 75% of Agria. He has earned 80 Millions during the IP for the shares that were listed. Investors had paid 16$ per share , all the money is invested in PGW and there china business.

During the partial takeover of PGW Agria paid a premium above stockholder equity.
If we face a going private we have the right of fair value. The low valuation is only about a long history of sceptic against Agria and has nothing to do with their business.

If someone here is a shareholder of Agria , please send me an email to:
webmaster@solinv.devvv

[Snoopy]

Above $4.00? Gee I'd love that - can you explain your Maths Agrarinvester?

Very easy to explain Tim. Current share price US78c

Exchange rate HKD to USD is $HK7.75 = $US1

So move to Hong Kong and the Agria share price becomes:

$7.75 *0.78= $6.05

A share price well above $4! Q.E.D.

SNOOPY

[Agrarinvestor]

Very easy to explain Tim. Current share price US78c

Exchange rate HKD to USD is $HK7.75 = $US1

So move to Hong Kong and the Agria share price becomes:

$7.75 *0.78= $6.05

A share price well above $4! Q.E.D.

SNOOPY

HAllo Snoopy,

your statement is wrong. Shareholder Equity per share is above 4 USD. I know that you are diving deep into the Balance sheets
and that you belong to the investors that are reading the annual reports careful. I have always handled your concerns wholehearted.
But why are you give such a wrong statement ?

All your apocalypse forecasting about Agria and PGW are not true:

Agria will report a strong loss in its annual report because of the decline in PGWs shareprice
Agria is not able to pay the LIC Loans back
PGW is not a buy, even at the shareprice was at 29 cent
PGW and Agria will not benefit from their teamplay
Agria is burning cash with its chinese seed business

all these predictions comes not out tu be true !

the last forecast of you about Agria will delist at end of December is as well not true !

But i must say: "Thank you" again, because i have taken your concerns always serious, i have saved a lot of money. Since yesterday i am buying Agria shares again.

[Snoopy]

Your statement is wrong. Shareholder Equity per share is above 4 USD. I know that you are diving deep into the Balance sheets
and that you belong to the investors that are reading the annual reports careful. I have always handled your concerns wholehearted.
But why are you give such a wrong statement ?

The balance sheet of Agria includes PGW valued at 60c per share. The market value for PGW shares is just over 40c. The difference is the negative equity that wipes out all of Agria'a net assets as presented on the balance sheet. It is the accounting rules that allow Agria to value their PGW shares at 60c. The market does not agree that PGW shares are worth 60c.

All your apocalypse forecasting about Agria and PGW are not true:

Agria will report a strong loss in its annual report because of the decline in PGWs shareprice

Yes I admit the writedown in PGW shares to market value did not happen. I hadn't realised that because Agria had consolidated PGW into its accounts that they no longer had to mark their PGW shares to market. I made a mistake and I don't always get things right. Of course this doesn't alter the fact that the market values PGW shares at just over 40c, not 60c.

Agria is not able to pay the LIC Loans back

This was correct. Agria had to negotiate a partial extension to 2014. Agria have not disclosed how they raised the money to repay half of their loan. They certainly had no cash income to pay down the loan.

PGW is not a buy, even at the shareprice was at 29 cent

Quoted out of context. I said this before PGW had released their FY2012 result which was much better than expected from Agriservices. Subsequent to that I raised my valuation of PGW. Indeed I bought some more PGW shares myself in the low 30c range.

PGW and Agria will not benefit from their teamplay.

I hinted at this before the announcement of various co-operative agreements over the last month. What I said before that was that I hadn't seen evidence that Alan Lai could bring any real benefit to PGW. With these co-operative announcements, I now have new hope (sic) that Agria and PGW can work well together.

Agria is burning cash with its chinese seed business

I said that the Agria directly chinese seed business is making no money, within the margin of error. From the FY2012 reported accounts this statement is true.

all these predictions comes not out to be true !

I wasn't making predictions. I was telling you what the figures in the annual accounts told me at the time. I stand by all my claims at the time I made them. As circumstances change, my impression of Agria/PGW will change. That is why I was willing to buy some PGW shares in the low 30c recently, yet I was unwilling to buy PGW shares at that price earlier in the year, before the PGW FY2012 annual result was released.

the last forecast of you about Agria will delist at end of December is as well not true !

The NYSE notified Agria on 27th June that they had six months to get their share price average over $1. If the NYSE are true to their word, then Agria will be delisted from the NYSE at the close of business on 27th December 2012.

Since yesterday i am buying Agria shares again.

You are a brave fellow. I prefer direct holding of PGW shares as my exposure to this situation.

SNOOPY

[Balance]

The balance sheet of Agria includes PGW valued at 60c per share. The market value for PGW shares is just over 40c. The difference is the negative equity that wipes out all of Agria'a net assets as presented on the balance sheet. It is the accounting rules that allow Agria to value their PGW shares at 60c. The market does not agree that PGW shares are worth 60c.



Yes I admit the writedown in PGW shares to market value did not happen. I hadn't realised that because Agria had consolidated PGW into its accounts that they no longer had to mark their PGW shares to market. I made a mistake and I don't always get things right. Of course this doesn't alter the fact that the market values PGW shares at just over 40c, not 60c.

You are a brave fellow. I prefer direct holding of PGW shares as my exposure to this situation.

SNOOPY

Snoopy, accounting principles do have underlying rationales behind them. The reason why Agria does not mark to market PGW is because it is not a a mark to market investment. Mark to market assumes that the market is always right about the value of a share, and we know that the market is not. Who famously said that the market is a beauty contest in the short term, and a weighing machine in the long term?

As an aside, I can recall a certain company (majority owned and managed by one of the highest profile scumbag hypocrites of business in NZ) changing its accounting policies every reporting date, depending on the share price of their major investment. Sp up, mark to market. Sp down, equity accounting! And the weak-knee yellow-belly auditors let them do so. Amazing what you could get away with back in those days if you were a high profile scumbag with connections to the government of the day. And they say that corruption does not exist in NZ!

Agree with you about Agria vs PGW to gain exposure.

[Snoopy]

Snoopy, accounting principles do have underlying rationales behind them. The reason why Agria does not mark to market PGW is because it is not a a mark to market investment. Mark to market assumes that the market is always right about the value of a share, and we know that the market is not. Who famously said that the market is a beauty contest in the short term, and a weighing machine in the long term?

Yes you are right Balance. And as Agrainvestor would say, Agria have full control of PGWs cashflows no matter what the PGW share price is. I guess what irks me about the accounting standards is that if Agria were to sell just 0.22% of the PGW shares on issue they would suddenly have to declare a massive loss come next balance date. We have the situation where selling a tiny number of PGW shares at the margin can make a huge difference to the financial results of Agria. And this is on the presumption that 100% of shareholders vote on every important issue. In practice I think Agria could probably sell 10% of shares on issue in PGW and still retain effective control. Yet the accounting standards do not recognise that.

I am picking that the banks that lend to Agria do recognise this when risk assessing Agria's loans. You couldn't have millions of dollars of loan money resting on the knife edge interpretation of accounting protocol.

Agria paid a short term premium for control of PGW, but it now looks like they paid a medium term premium as well. Generally when one company gains control of another they use synergy benefits to justify the price premium being paid. In the case of Agria and PGW, there are no synergy benefits that have trickled through to the PGW bottom line.

Long term that means Agria is under pressure. Agria was down nearly 4% to US 75c as the NYSE market closed for the week. No word on how Agria will deal with their imminent delisting. IMO Agria is treating their small shareholders with utter contempt, even as Alan Lai mounts the diving board to prepare to dive over his own nearly private 'fiscal cliff', leaving nothing but sand in the face of his remaining NYSE wooed followers.

SNOOPY

[Balance]

Refresh my memory - what was the company?

Think BNZ and who owned the BNZ.

[winner69]

Jeez what's up ......PGA at 42 cents ...might get into top 10 for the tear

Talking of what's up anybody know what happened to him/her