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Underweight/Overweight?
I'm in the process of reviewing the weightings in the various NZX and ASX stocks I hold and am wondering how the portfolio compares in this respect with other investors (not frequent traders, for obvious reasons).
CAV is still my biggest holding, now 14.08%, down from the giddy heights of +20%. This is due to having sold a few last year at 540 , the current price weakness and growth in other stuff.
Next in line are WPT 11.61%, AIA 10.77, WAM 8.16, TEL 7.67, FBU 7.09, PFI 6.93, CEN 5.68 and NPX 5.23.
Ten others follow, from goodies like DPC and MGP to garbage like RMG.
I'm planning to buy more NPX and probably STU (currently under 4%) but can't see me adding new stocks, other than at an IPO, eg Vector.
Anyone else like to contribute? Or am I boring you?
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LAWSO: You have raised a point that interests me, we have a restriction that limits any company to 5% of total portfolio value,so hold more companies than most. At the moment ASX:NZX is 75:25. You seem to have listed NZX companies so extracting from my NZX holdings only,with percentage relating just to this group:
STU 13%,AIA 13%,NPX 10%,IFT 10%,HBY 10%,FPA 8%,
CEN 8%,FBU 7%,CNZ 7%,WAM 7% balance CTL,ROC,POT,GPG,CAV.
I have a system,far from ideal at this stage, for calculating weightings. Only ocasionally is a new company added/dropped from the list. Consistently I sell a third or half of a holding of something I see going out of favour,switching to what I like more.
A record is kept of these switches, comparing what would have happened to what did happen, on a transaction by transaction basis. Over 90% success,biggest mess up this year was selling some NUF for ATR. Might come right in the long term though. Glad it was only a third sold.
I would be interested if you care to post the weightings you decide on, with any thoughts on how you reached your conclusions.
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If I have read it right you have 19 stocks in your long-term portfolio?
I currently have only 5
<pre id="code">
MFT 40.20%
TWR 19.51%
IFT 16.33%
FTX 15.36%
NOGOC 8.59%
</pre id="code">
TWR will split into TWR and AUW(on the ASX) this month and I will pay to exercise my entitlements and keep both.
Come June I need to convert the NOGOC to NOG.
I am also looking at buying NPX, and am monitoring the price for a suitable entry point.
Other than that I will be interested in buying VCT when it happens, and if any of my holdings hit real bad news then I would be out quick.
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My New Zealand portolio is currently
GPG NZX 19.29%
SKX NZX 9.11%
MFT NZX 8.75%
FBU NZX 8.36%
FTX NZX 5.60%
VTX NZX 5.03%
BOZ NZX 1.60%
I'm happy with being overweight in GPG and having good holdings of FBU and MFT. However, I'm starting to think that holding FTX, VTX, and SKX, while doing OK, are not strong performers.
Considering adding NOGOC, AIA (wish I'd never sold X2!) and toppin gup FBU.
RIN ASX 18.73%
WMR ASX 9.96%
ANZ ASX 7.08%
MIG ASX 6.47%
Again happy overweight in RIN. Takeover possibility on WMR means looking for a new home soon. ANZ underperformer, considering topping up MIG, or perhaps AWC
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Hmmm. It would be interesting to see cash balances in the mix too to give an indication of optimism / pessimism.
I personally think economic cycles have peaked in NZ and Australia for a little bit and have become pessimistic about consumer cyclicals in particular. Not willing to bet the farm on it but still think there is mileage in a number of resourses / commodities. I also think costs and earnings will be exasperated in the next 1 to 2 years: Continued high commodity prices courtesy of China, India Etc and associated inflation combined with softening currencies in NZ & OZ versus the $US. I think the NZ$ may fall relative to the Aussie as well, particularly if we do start seeing some interest rate cuts.
Having said that right now I'm:
New Zealand...
10.10% $NZ Cash
Australia...
77.48% $AU Cash
11.75% GCL.ax
0.67% AFC.ax
I'd love to get some more AFC but not willing to buy at current prices without clearer earnings guidance.
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My NZ cash (well the amount of my mortgage facility that I haven't got invested) is about 17% of the valuation of my share portfolio. I have about $3AUD in my foreign currency account. I'd wager that I have more in small australian change!
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In looking at your portfolio's the thought that struck me was that you guys need to consider why you have such a low weighting into property stocks. Property will be the next mover as the stock market slowly goes off the boil. I detect a growing optimism in this sector.
I am not saying that you should necessarily buy them, but you should have an answer as to why you are weighted as you are.
I am not confident I know enough about bonds to hold more than a small amount in that asset class.
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quote: Originally posted by k1w1
In looking at your portfolio's the thought that struck me was that you guys need to consider why you have such a low weighting into property stocks. Property will be the next mover as the stock market slowly goes off the boil. I detect a growing optimism in this sector.
I am not saying that you should necessarily buy them, but you should have an answer as to why you are weighted as you are...
From a fundamentals and valuation perspective real estate just doesn't light my fire. Although there is an improved degree of security in having a lease it is capital intensive, low yielding and cyclical. This means that a large amount of borrowing is needed to make a property play really profitable. I personally borrow very rarely for investment although will if the risk / reward ratio seems desirable. I don't like investing in companies with high borrowings either - they have a higher default risk and less flexibility to make those great, once in a cycle, company building acquisitions in times of distressed prices. While any cycle can be managed profitably I prefer to take mine with high ROA / ROE and low or no debt.
Finally, I think the jury is still out on where we are in the property cycle. There's been a few good years already.
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quote:you have such a low weighting into property stocks.
I have the uneducated opinion that property stocks are where the shysters are at!! Also, I'm doing pretty happily without them, and FBU are doing the building!
What property stocks would you suggest that I look at? I've looked at APT, but it doesn't seem too riveting.
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