HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[janner]

HNZ at present Stockness Monster time 5 05 pm... is... 0.85.. Ho Hum.. :-))) Enjoy... :-))

[percy]

I see current value at 88c for now, and $1.41 for the coming year, assuming eps of 6.4c for fy2013

As per the announcement earnings [on going] of approx. $25 mil,this year, which is your 6.4cents.
Then next year either 8.75cents [$34mil] or 9.5cents [$37mil].
That is earnings growth of 36% [$34mil] or 48% [$37mi].
Either 36% or 48% EPS growth and paying a divie means your 14.8 PE looks about right to me.So I agree with your $1.41.as I think they will achieve their $37mil goal.

[iceman]

As per the announcement earnings [on going] of approx. $25 mil,this year, which is your 6.4cents.
Then next year either 8.75cents [$34mil] or 9.5cents [$37mil].
That is earnings growth of 36% [$34mil] or 48% [$37mi].
Either 36% or 48% EPS growth and paying a divie means your 14.8 PE looks about right to me.So I agree with your $1.41.as I think they will achieve their $37mil goal.

And also the share buyback which could make this even more favourable although there is no detail yet the buyback

[percy]

And also the share buyback which could make this even more favourable although there is no detail yet the buyback

Yes offcourse,I forgot about that.
$1.50 target price then.????? !!!!!

[Snow Leopard]

As per the announcement earnings [on going] of approx. $25 mil,this year, which is your 6.4cents.
Then next year either 8.75cents [$34mil] or 9.5cents [$37mil].
That is earnings growth of 36% [$34mil] or 48% [$37mi].
Either 36% or 48% EPS growth and paying a divie means your 14.8 PE looks about right to me.So I agree with your $1.41.as I think they will achieve their $37mil goal.

Being a gentle peace loving tiger I don't wish to cause unrest but...

Coming up with a pair of valuations based purely upon two sets of results is pretty poor modeling, you need to make assumptions about future years.

Going with the tiger defensive model and normalised profits of 2013: 6.4cps and 2014 9.0cps then if I assume a 15% growth rate after that I can get $1.40 for next year but that gives a current value of $1.20.
[My figures of $0.9 and $1.00 are based on 10% growth tapering off over subsequent years]

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[percy]

Being a gentle peace loving tiger I don't wish to cause unrest but...

Coming up with a pair of valuations based purely upon two sets of results is pretty poor modeling, you need to make assumptions about future years.

Going with the tiger defensive model and normalised profits of 2013: 6.4cps and 2014 9.0cps then if I assume a 15% growth rate after that I can get $1.40 for next year but that gives a current value of $1.20.
[My figures of $0.9 and $1.00 are based on 10% growth tapering off over subsequent years]

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Yes I would agree with you that current value is $1.20.!!! lol.

[janner]

Yes I would agree with you that current value is $1.20.!!! lol.

Nope .. not on my time table Percy.. To exuberant !!.. 0.95 for now will suffice..

[percy]

Nope .. not on my time table Percy.. To exuberant !!.. 0.95 for now will suffice..

Maybe.???
Future growth rate.?
The $34 to $37mil is either 13% or 23% higher than the $30mil I projected.So I am no good on future projections.
15% pa growth rate maybe too low.HNZ are coming from a small base and may grow at 18% to 20% over the next few years.Could be 25%.?
Trust Bank showed us how quickly a locally owned and operated bank can grow.Heartland are gaining momentum.The branch I looked at in Ashburton today is a bold statement.On the front window it showed Ashburton's history together with Heartland's history.Local pride.I was impressed with Tauranga branch too.We have recently seen UDC post a huge profit increase,so the business is there.
New Zealanders will be proud to support NZ's only listed bank.
Heartland have stated they intend to grow.Timaru and Invercargill are only two I can remember. Timaru they will do well.

[janner]

Maybe.???
Future growth rate.?
The $34 to $37mil is either 13% or 23% higher than the $30mil I projected.So I am no good on future projections.
15% pa growth rate maybe too low.HNZ are coming from a small base and may grow at 18% to 20% over the next few years.Could be 25%.?
Trust Bank showed us how quickly a locally owned and operated bank can grow.Heartland are gaining momentum.The branch I looked at in Ashburton today is a bold statement.On the front window it showed Ashburton's history together with Heartland's history.Local pride.I was impressed with Tauranga branch too.We have recently seen UDC post a huge profit increase,so the business is there.
New Zealanders will be proud to support NZ's only listed bank.
Heartland have stated they intend to grow.Timaru and Invercargill are only two I can remember. Timaru they will do well.

Not into disagreeing or agreeing with your numbers Percy..

Do think that you have picked on the angle that HNZ ( rightly ) will be playing..

My first bank account on arrival ( 1959 ) was opened up with the Auckland Savings Bank.. I still have that account..

I opened it with them because I wanted to be an Aucklander. A Kiwi..

So many people today have had enough of foreign take overs..

HNZ should now be giving my Grand children money boxes that the OLD ASB used to give out..

Building a saving habit and a pride in a NEW ZEALAND BANK..

Now stopping saluting the flag and wiping the tears from my eye's..

I still remain convinced that HNZ can be NZ's.... First Bank..

[Minerbarejet]

Winnie will love that.