CNU - Chorus

[Silverlight]

May I ask, why in 2 years time we will be back at 3.5+ with the promised dividends? And if that is indeed more probable to happen than the opposite, why the downgrade is also valid? Let's assume brokers recommendation covers at least 12 months; then for both your view and their view to be correct, there would be a 12 months period of low and flat followed by a 12 months period of up. Then my question would be, why buy in now if indeed that is what you try to tell us? I just don't see the action and the explanation of the action match.

Okay if I am the only one who feels this way, I guess I am being obnoxious again and I am sorry about that.

Craigs call for a sell was at $2.60 with a target price of $2.29, and this price would reflect all uncertainty. We hit $2.29 yesterday, so according to Craigs all uncertainty is built into the share price now, in theory they will move to a hold at some point, but brokers usually release reports every 2 to 3 months, so they will say hold in 3 months time.

Once things move to being more certain (could be 2 weeks, could be 2 years) people will pile back into the stock, because, oh yeah, Chorus is still making over 40 cents per year, and paying out 25 cents of it in dividends, confirming dividends does wonders for sentiment, and the move back up may happen way before 2 years, I will be out circa $3.50 either way.

Markets move on sentiment, and a couple of times a year share prices reflect the underlying business value, the rest of the time stocks are undervalued or overvalued, reflecting participants optimism or pessimism.

[TimmyTP]

I have set up such a thread for Futurist and others to use for precisely this purpose.

Thank you Sparky, I hope it is well used and brings benefits to all.

[TimmyTP]

Muppett pull your head in, that is NOT the idea at all.

[JayRiggs]

LOL loving the drama on this thread!

[futurist]

Craigs call for a sell was at $2.60 with a target price of $2.29, and this price would reflect all uncertainty. We hit $2.29 yesterday, so according to Craigs all uncertainty is built into the share price now, in theory they will move to a hold at some point, but brokers usually release reports every 2 to 3 months, so they will say hold in 3 months time.

Once things move to being more certain (could be 2 weeks, could be 2 years) people will pile back into the stock, because, oh yeah, Chorus is still making over 40 cents per year, and paying out 25 cents of it in dividends, confirming dividends does wonders for sentiment, and the move back up may happen way before 2 years, I will be out circa $3.50 either way.

Markets move on sentiment, and a couple of times a year share prices reflect the underlying business value, the rest of the time stocks are undervalued or overvalued, reflecting participants optimism or pessimism.

Thanks for your reply Silverlight. You did explain very clear your underlying assumptions here, even sometimes an assumption and a fact is difficult to differentiate from our use of language. But I think you have done a great job clearing my questions earlier.

I accept the picture you paint for the 2 years horizon on CNU is a possibility; but in terms of entry I would be a bit more cautious. Using your words, the pessimism on CNU could have more or less reached a certain point but the pessimism around the globe has just begun. Even predicting 2 years is difficult, maybe waiting a couple of weeks can make a difference. The dividend yield of this share would always look attractive anyway for the range of prices it is trading recently.

All the best.

[futurist]

Unnecessary mate

So I am obnoxious and this guy is unnecessary? Come on!

[Mista_Trix]

Messy next 12 months or so ... but surely it should sort itself out ... surely... ... ... he tells himself 'reassuringly'....

[Banksie]

Commerce Commission final decision on the telecommunication development levy is published.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/CNU/announcements/237864

[Mista_Trix]

Anyone want to break that all down into laymen's terms? I absolutely hate government speak and it doesn't make clear anything, as usual...

I second that.

[Banksie]

Chorus were trying to avoid paying $6.4m towards the levy, unfortunately they were unsuccessful in their bid.
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/commerc...ations-levy-CK

I would think the news was expected and already factored into the SP.