RBD - Restaurant Brands

[Rep]

Yep RBD's second quarter is 16 weeks.

Rolling over one store's part week opening is not a particularly good indicator of the overall brand performance. The Carl's Jr stores appear to be doing an average weekly revenue that is higher than what has been achieved across the KFC network although on relatively small amount of stores. The EBITDA 20% target is more or less what KFC has been achieving over the several years that Russel has been in charge and now that the red ink @ Pizza Hut has been stemmed and some rationalisation of the Starbucks network then it isn't unreasonable to expect some growth in earnings year on year.

IMHO the competition has stepped up their game in response to Carl's Jr although Harvey's comment about a BurgerFuel store rollout probably isn't worrying anyone at RBD. Apart from one store, all of the Carl's Jr stores to date have a drive-thru with the capital build and revenue in a different league from a Burgerfuel store. It's a bit like comparing Nando's with KFC - BFW stores are more boutique compared to a mass market QSR like a KFC.

[winner69]

If you add up the number of weeks stores are open (like Q2 is 4 stores at 16 weeks and 1store for 4 weeks to give 68 'store weeks') and then take average sales per week per store here is the trend -

Q413. $82k
Q114. $62k
Q214. $64k
Q314. $52k

So Q3 was a bit weak compared to previous 2 quarters

Might keep this going to see what happens

So is $50k to $60k a week per store the going rate ..... Still quite a lot over 60 stores if they ever get there

There was a article in The Herald about the Auckland Airport Carl's jnr ........did it really cost $4.5 million to set up?

[winner69]

If you add up the number of weeks stores are open (like Q2 is 4 stores at 16 weeks and 1store for 4 weeks to give 68 'store weeks') and then take average sales per week per store here is the trend -

Q413. $82k
Q114. $62k
Q214. $64k
Q314. $52k

So Q3 was a bit weak compared to previous 2 quarters

Might keep this going to see what happens

So is $50k to $60k a week per store the going rate ..... Still quite a lot over 60 stores if they ever get there

There was a article in The Herald about the Auckland Airport Carl's jnr ........did it really cost $4.5 million to set up?

[winner69]

The carls website lists 16 stores ....yet sales repo says 8

Have they opened the other 6 in the last week or so?

[Rep]

There are two franchisees for Carl's Jr in New Zealand. Forsgren NZ obtained rights that totalled 8-9 stores in Auckland, RBD obtained subsequently the rights to open 50 or more stores in NZ incl Auckland.

[Rep]

The $4.5 million was for the Carl's Jr and the adjacent KFC store also operated by RBD

[winner69]

There are two franchisees for Carl's Jr in New Zealand. Forsgren NZ obtained rights that totalled 8-9 stores in Auckland, RBD obtained subsequently the rights to open 50 or more stores in NZ incl Auckland.

The website said the info only relates to Restaurant Brands Carls ....and they list 16 ...jst a tad confused

[winner69]

I think the 16 does include the non RBD ones it lists the Henderson ne and that is Forsgren rone

[Harvey Specter]

If you add up the number of weeks stores are open (like Q2 is 4 stores at 16 weeks and 1store for 4 weeks to give 68 'store weeks') and then take average sales per week per store here is the trend -

Q413. $82k
Q114. $62k
Q214. $64k
Q314. $52k

So Q3 was a bit weak compared to previous 2 quarters

Might keep this going to see what happens

So is $50k to $60k a week per store the going rate ..... Still quite a lot over 60 stores if they ever get there

There was a article in The Herald about the Auckland Airport Carl's jnr ........did it really cost $4.5 million to set up?

good work.

For comparison, BFW is about $20-30k per week for a fit out of $300-400k. RBD probably has better economies on certain items plus isn't a franchise model.

[winner69]

So the $60k a week doesn't quite give $200m a year over 60 stores, but pretty close to it

All we need is to work out how much they can make out of this ..... with as Snoopy says all the unallocated costs sitting in HO admin which in reality will be extra costs directly related to Carls. I just have a feeling that it will not be as profitable as some say it will.

In theory Carls should be a game changer and take RBD from a 300m company to a 1/2 billion company. Haven't had much success in the past with game changers have they ..... but this time is different eh

Snoopy has been there several times over the years and what he posted a few pages back always echos in my mind - Does this not sound like a recipe for more cash in to get less cash out?. Was talking about KFC (I think) but has applied to RBD over the years

So maybe just a little bigger dividend is on the cards in a few years time .... double I doubt it