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22-01-2014, 12:40 PM
#721
Member
might help but someone is buying today and i doubt that is the reason.
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22-01-2014, 12:45 PM
#722
There half yearly report due in feb, probably the figures are looking good...
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22-01-2014, 12:47 PM
#723
Member
lets hope. I always pay close attention before reports are due as I think information has a way of leaking out should i say. Maybe I am wrong.
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22-01-2014, 02:39 PM
#724
Seems to be looking ok to me too with five weeks until reporting.
The Aussie exchange rate has moved 9.1% unfavourably during the HY14 reporting period. However, market share at FY13 was 7.4% and we know from more recent media releases in September that growth was continuing and that market share was 7.9% with three months remaining within the reporting period. We have also now expansion into Western Australia to allow for.
The first shipment of formula to China, in June, was invoiced within the FY13 period, but I recall Geoff saying during the AGM that the third shipment would just fall within HY14. Add to that formula sales now also from within New Zealand and Australia.
Let’s hope we see progress in A2 sales in the UK and Ireland from the now 1,000 sales outlets, there may have been some impact though from the Droitwich plant fire. It’s been good to see the ‘tube’ and internet advertising, although I’m looking for some news in regard to ATM overcoming the European Union advertising content hurdles as mentioned during the AGM.
We should expect NPAT to be quite humble as some quite large investments in growth have been made, however I see this investment in growth as a big positive, and shareholders will reap the rewards from the forward cashflows they will generate.
There is the buyout costs of the Muller Wiseman JV, there will be costs associated with the Western Australian supply agreement with Browns, there will be increased transport costs as sales to China ramp up, and possibly costs associated with the UHY Pactum agreement.
I’m looking for revenues in the $56M to $64M (+26% to +45%) as being a good result. NPAT in the range of $0.75M to $1.0M (+39% to +85%) as being a good result.
IMO the above would see ATM steadily continuing on track toward their announced humble FY16 goals. These being $280M in total revenues, 1.8% market share in the UK, 1% infant formula market share in China representing $60M in revenues.
And of course we may or may not receive an update on progress on plans for the US and Canada market.
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22-01-2014, 05:33 PM
#725
Originally Posted by turmeric
All looking pretty good aye Mac!!
Also just add that there were some unexpectedly high inflation figures coming out of OZ today which sent the NZD about 1% down on the OZ so a little short term relief maybe in that respect....
Well yes actually, exchange rates are there for the market to see in real time and tend to get priced in. Overall I see exchange rates impacting overall revenues by up to $5M for HY14, keep in mind that there's lot's of growth though to consider too!
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22-01-2014, 06:43 PM
#726
Originally Posted by MAC
Seems to be looking ok to me too with five weeks until reporting.
And of course we may or may not receive an update on progress on plans for the US and Canada market.
To many intangibles at present..
Just wait.. :-)
Disc. Holding.
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27-01-2014, 08:01 PM
#727
Member
Just wondering what everyone thinks in regard to these guys having a "moat" type feel on limitations to entry on their genetic cow herds. Obviously entry into their competition space isn't regulated by anyone but is protected to some degree by their own specialisation of product?
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27-01-2014, 08:26 PM
#728
Originally Posted by benjitara
Just wondering what everyone thinks in regard to these guys having a "moat" type feel on limitations to entry on their genetic cow herds. Obviously entry into their competition space isn't regulated by anyone but is protected to some degree by their own specialisation of product?
Probably so I think Benjitara, their IP provides for “exclusivity to the manufacture and sale of a2 branded products” which may allow for a wide moat.
That’s not say that any old farmer can’t still produce milk from a jersey cow, they just can’t brand it as A2 without issue. As I understand, A2 corp also have patents on the test process for determining if that cow is A2 or not.
It’s not a metric I collate, perhaps you can have a go for us, would be interested in your outcome ?
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/185472.pdf
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/156043.pdf
Last edited by MAC; 27-01-2014 at 10:24 PM.
Reason: Added 2012 Presentation Link
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29-01-2014, 02:57 PM
#729
A couple of big parcels traded in the last hour. Very interesting to see and hopefully it will put a floor under SP at 93c
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29-01-2014, 05:06 PM
#730
Member
yes someone buying big today hopefully a good sign.
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