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08-02-2014, 12:11 PM
#1281
New record highs by end of month ....maybe.... yes maybe ....two good rises now... closed today at 1797 +24 +1.31%...broke back up over the major resistance of 1775 so it is now back as a major support again and eliminating the 1700 TA target threat for now ...
On seeing a major support break back suddenly like it's not even there shows there was huge buying pressure today which has to be seen as bullish...
The S&P500 slowly mending itself but still a lot of work to do to eliminate the next threat in line, the bearish H&S pattern which is still forming....then after that the bearish double top.
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11-02-2014, 08:36 AM
#1282
Lets go back a few pages on this thread and resurrect the talk of the 1800 resistance again
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11-02-2014, 09:14 AM
#1283
Originally Posted by winner69
Lets go back a few pages on this thread and resurrect the talk of the 1800 resistance again
Yes this 1800 resistance is becoming stronger another fail intraday today increased the strength
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12-02-2014, 10:58 AM
#1284
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12-02-2014, 02:47 PM
#1285
Actually the latest gain of the S&P500 breaking past that left hand shoulder 1810 (1813) resistance point and closed at 1820 +20 +1.12%...is rather significant, its a bullish event and it weakens that H&S pattern threat its trying to form and another confirmation setting the bottom at 1738...So the broken S&P 500 can be considered as nearly fixed....A new record high will confirm that, and remove the thought of an H&S pattern forming..
However at 1820 the H&S pattern threat is still considered strong.....
Last edited by Hoop; 12-02-2014 at 02:49 PM.
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12-02-2014, 07:24 PM
#1286
Member
A good technical observation there Hoop !
I'm calling this mornings rally the "Yellen Effect" with her steady-at-the-helm, dovish testimony to the US House of Representatives.
I was fairly excited about the mini-correction just experienced because it gave me an opportunity to scale into a position in McCormick & CO (MKC).
I've been waiting for an opportunity to buy into this company for almost an eternity (OK, let's call it around 3 years).
I was hesitant because the technicals looked terrible (price below the 200-Day SMA, 50-Day SMA below the 200-Day SMA) but I try to stick to my FA framework as best as I can. The awful technicals means that I can only scale into an initial position (30% of my intended position size), and not commit anymore funds until it begins to trend upwards. Fundamentally speaking, I love this company, although it's still not that cheap on a valuation basis. But a business that owns the largest market share of herbs, spices and seasonings ... and provides both branded and private-label products ... I want in. Even better, Standards and Poors Capital IQ has a SELL rating on this stock ... perfect ! In my experience, their BUY ratings have been rubbish, so a SELL rating is an opportunity to be bullish.
Just be aware, usually when I buy something it goes on to tank a few days later. But I've always played the long-game, look to own solid businesses and have a holding period of 20 years or more if possible.
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12-02-2014, 09:40 PM
#1287
Originally Posted by boring
A good technical observation there Hoop !
I'm calling this mornings rally the "Yellen Effect" with her steady-at-the-helm, dovish testimony to the US House of Representatives.
I was fairly excited about the mini-correction just experienced because it gave me an opportunity to scale into a position in McCormick & CO (MKC).
I've been waiting for an opportunity to buy into this company for almost an eternity (OK, let's call it around 3 years).
I was hesitant because the technicals looked terrible (price below the 200-Day SMA, 50-Day SMA below the 200-Day SMA) but I try to stick to my FA framework as best as I can. The awful technicals means that I can only scale into an initial position (30% of my intended position size), and not commit anymore funds until it begins to trend upwards. Fundamentally speaking, I love this company, although it's still not that cheap on a valuation basis. But a business that owns the largest market share of herbs, spices and seasonings ... and provides both branded and private-label products ... I want in. Even better, Standards and Poors Capital IQ has a SELL rating on this stock ... perfect ! In my experience, their BUY ratings have been rubbish, so a SELL rating is an opportunity to be bullish.
Just be aware, usually when I buy something it goes on to tank a few days later. But I've always played the long-game, look to own solid businesses and have a holding period of 20 years or more if possible.
Technicals looking crappy now..Boring ..Am I looking at the same company as you??...MKC was in a great uptrend between Sept 2011 and August 2013 ....you should been in then and let the trend be your friend...
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12-02-2014, 10:50 PM
#1288
Member
Yep Hoop, you sure are looking at the same company, and yes, the technicals look crappy.
That's one of the by-products of using the dividend-value/cash flow strategy for long-term investments. This system of investing is definitely not for everybody. The analytics almost always issue a buy signal when the price is under pressure and the technicals look bad. By the time the technicals improve, the buy signal has long past because the appreciating price has made the yield fall. That's what happened during that entire time this stock was on a nice uptrend. Dividend yield was consistently below the S&P 500 market yield, so I would have been better off buying the index, getting a higher yield whilst eliminating individual company risk.
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25-02-2014, 08:48 AM
#1289
Breakout is one confirmation event that S&P500 is still in a Cyclic Bull Market Cycle
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25-02-2014, 11:38 AM
#1290
yeh I was looking at S+P to consider a short and declined coz I didn't see convincing divergence
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