ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[airedale]

I wonder which of those entities is Milford Asset Management.

[Master98]

I wonder which of those entities is Milford Asset Management.

I think belong to NEW ZEALAND CENTRAL SECURITIES DEPOSITORY LIMITED

[Harrie]

I wouldn't market myself as a statistician. But back in the dim dark past I did study some of this stuff so I will put my 2c worth into answering these questions.

In a test like this ideally you want an 'r' value of 1 as a result (where r can vary between -1 and 1). An r value of 1 means straight line predictability. In this example, feed someone a measured quantity of A1 milk and you can predict exactly the associated abdominal pain and stool consistency as a result. Of course peoples' colons are complex biological systems with all sorts of digestive system contents interactions to contend with. And different people may have naturally different tolerances to different foods. Given this, an 'r' value of 1 was never going to happen as a result in a test like this. However, I would have liked to have seen an "r" of up to 0.7 or at least 0.6.

An "r" value of 0.52 is not a particularly compelling result. Especially considering the test participants were made to consume 750ml of milk per day for two weeks on end (that is way above 'normal' consumption for most people). Do an internet search for images and 'r-value 0.5' and you will see what I mean. Squint hard and you can draw a line through an r=0.5 'dot storm'. But for r=0.5 or thereabouts, it really isn't convincing. Keith Woodford is right when he says that he needs to redo this test with a larger sample. The test is positive enough to continue the research, but is no game changing result IMO.

SNOOPY

Interesting, but isn't the significant issue the difference in correlation between the two "r" rather than an "r" value itself for A1?
Does a minus "r" value therefore suggest a positive or improved digestive reaction to A2?

[Master98]

An "r" value of 0.52 is not a particularly compelling result. Especially considering the test participants were made to consume 750ml of milk per day for two weeks on end (that is way above 'normal' consumption for most people).
SNOOPY

I am not an related expert, so can not judge your comment, can you tell us what is the "normal" milk consumption for most people? I drink 6l milk per week seems abnormal

[silverblizzard888]

A2 Milk about to get a mention on 3 news!

[Citizen Erased]

What's Forsyth Barr's track record like when it comes to forecasting earnings?

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mone...th-in-earnings

Analysis by Forsyth Barr widens the net to include 48 companies reporting up to October 23. Of those, 11 were expected to report second half earnings up more than 15 per cent on the first half, including Meridian, Mighty River Power, Air New Zealand and PGG Wrightson.

Meanwhile, 13 were expected to report earnings down at least 20 per cent over the same period.

"That's quite a large number, certainly a larger number than we would have anticipated," said Mercer.

The decliners included A2 Milk, the Fonterra Shareholders Fund, Warehouse Group, Kathmandu and Pumpkin Patch.

[MAC]

I think that's both fair and unsurprising, I'm expecting earnings to be lower too, but whether NPAT is an insignificant $4M or an insignificant $0M, there's no real difference in the big picture when revenues are growing nicely toward the $280M target by 2016.

Sacrificing earnings for growth is something ATM have down to a fine art IMO, or at least have done so for the last three years, optimising close to zero, investing every skerick into new joint venture establishment. I find this approach preferable to some growth companies that run at a continual loss for years.

There’s been a few big investments in the last year, buying out Muller Wiseman, Western Australian JV establishment, ramp up of infant formula into the Chinese, Australian and New Zealand markets, all funded largely from gross margins.

Revenues should be +20%, it’s revenue growth that’s important for the next few years.

[Jasemc]

Well put Mac. They have a relatively conservative growth plan relying a lot on profit from australia. We hope that the uk is growing well and china is getting back on track. The day they have a second market to fund growth the day we all retire early on our gains otherwise we keep working.

[see weed]

A2 Milk about to get a mention on 3 news!

That was good exposure for A2 milk. It was at least 3 minutes worth straight after the business news.

[hilskin]

Here's the news item from TV3

http://www.3news.co.nz/A2-milk-easie...1/Default.aspx