ALF - Allied Farmers Limited

[minimoke]

..... and 10 cents today ... and at good volumes too.

I have done more research. I think my 20 cent prediction for 1 year from now is VERY conservative.

Give credit where credit is due. You stuck in there! good on you - I wouldn't have

[Minerbarejet]

Yes, good call Vaygor1.

[Vaygor1]

Yes, good call Vaygor1.

Give credit where credit is due. You stuck in there! good on you - I wouldn't have

Thanks MM. Given your earlier comments on ALF, your feedback means a lot to me.
On top of that I have always enjoyed your posts (on more than just this thread of course) and appreciate your repartee very much. Keep them coming.

Thanks too MBJ. Looking forward to meeting you in November.

[BFG]

Right, well I did my homework over the weekend and bought some ALF today. I feel the company is well undervalued today, assuming that growth can be given as per last presentation and profits boosted. Let's take a look:

I have assumed that current EPS of 1.06cps will grow a modest 0.5 cps to 1.5cps for next year (50% growth) for a forward looking P/E of 4.6 @ 7 cents (current P/E @ 7 cents is 6.6).

YPEG score is 0.47, or indicating the stock is very cheap.EV is $6.8M, or quite cheap.

All indicators suggest that the stock is very cheap relative to its current earnings and the assumed growth rates.

Assuming then an even more conservative view of 25% EPS growth for next year, and 5% on average for the next five years (as the market is saying right now based on current P/E).I still get a target price of 16%, while YPEG is 1.06, which suggests fair value/no change to EV.

Things I like: As I said earlier, the market is pricing this in as a still very risky stock, but I do not think this is the case as all debt has been paid down and the company is now profitable, with more to come. Moreover, they are looking to growth again. I also like the fact that this was quoted from an earlier article:

"Director Andrew McDouall said Bluett had made a huge contribution to Allied Farmers. 'He has to be the worst-paid director in the country for the hours that he puts in.'" (An NZX-listed Director who cares about his company? Say it ain't so!)

Challenges: Lower forecast dairy payout for 2014-15, grazing arrangements for clients, and the bobby calf industry, even though the calf tally is growing consistently and they have cited a 17% growth in numbers coming up.

Disc- Now holding and will look to add to my holding astime goes on. I look forward to the HY report end of February

[Minerbarejet]

If its any help South Taranaki has had at least an inch of rain in the last couple of days, greening up real nice. Might save the production a bit.

[BFG]

If its any help South Taranaki has had at least an inch of rain in the last couple of days, greening up real nice. Might save the production a bit.

We've had quite a bit in the Manawatu as well. Never seen another area of the country (especially here!) look like Hawke's Bay mid-summer time. Absolutely bone dry, but still raining today and no signs of letting up

[noodles]

Right, well I did my homework over the weekend and bought some ALF today. I feel the company is well undervalued today, assuming that growth can be given as per last presentation and profits boosted. Let's take a look:

I have assumed that current EPS of 1.06cps will grow a modest 0.5 cps to 1.5cps for next year (50% growth) for a forward looking P/E of 4.6 @ 7 cents (current P/E @ 7 cents is 6.6).

YPEG score is 0.47, or indicating the stock is very cheap.EV is $6.8M, or quite cheap.

All indicators suggest that the stock is very cheap relative to its current earnings and the assumed growth rates.

Assuming then an even more conservative view of 25% EPS growth for next year, and 5% on average for the next five years (as the market is saying right now based on current P/E).I still get a target price of 16%, while YPEG is 1.06, which suggests fair value/no change to EV.

Things I like: As I said earlier, the market is pricing this in as a still very risky stock, but I do not think this is the case as all debt has been paid down and the company is now profitable, with more to come. Moreover, they are looking to growth again. I also like the fact that this was quoted from an earlier article:

"Director Andrew McDouall said Bluett had made a huge contribution to Allied Farmers. 'He has to be the worst-paid director in the country for the hours that he puts in.'" (An NZX-listed Director who cares about his company? Say it ain't so!)

Challenges: Lower forecast dairy payout for 2014-15, grazing arrangements for clients, and the bobby calf industry, even though the calf tally is growing consistently and they have cited a 17% growth in numbers coming up.

Disc- Now holding and will look to add to my holding astime goes on. I look forward to the HY report end of February

Thanks BFG,

What is driving the 50% eps growth? It that your forecast or the company?
What is the tax situation? They paid no tax last year. Will they need to start paying tax this year?
It looks like they have $5.6mil in debt. (pg.7 of AGM preso). Is that correct?

[BFG]

Thanks BFG,

What is driving the 50% eps growth? It that your forecast or the company?
What is the tax situation? They paid no tax last year. Will they need to start paying tax this year?
It looks like they have $5.6mil in debt. (pg.7 of AGM preso). Is that correct?

EPS growth is based on reducing corporate overheads and increasing revenue. This is a conservative estimate of revenue growth based on past 2 years EBT growth. I am banking on sales throughput for calves being higher in '15 due to high prices for beef. In addition, we should see a one-off positive impact to earnings through the 020 Bond issued for CAML debt:

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/Dire...spx?id=3717270

This is from the FY14 report:

Corporate interest costs reduced from $.08M to $0.3M as secured loans continued to be repaid. The balance of secured debt owed to thelender was $2.6M at June 2014, down from $5.1M inJune 2013.

The listed entity, Allied Farmers Ltd, has shareholders’funds of $3.1M. As in the last year’s accounts, the Group accounts still reflect negative equity as the consolidated result does not attribute the fullmarket value of the investment in the NZ Farmers Livestock subsidiary or thesaleyard properties held.

[noodles]

EPS growth is based on reducing corporate overheads and increasing revenue. This is a conservative estimate of revenue growth based on past 2 years EBT growth. I am banking on sales throughput for calves being higher in '15 due to high prices for beef. In addition, we should see a one-off positive impact to earnings through the 020 Bond issued for CAML debt:

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/Dire...spx?id=3717270

This is from the FY14 report:

Corporate interest costs reduced from $.08M to $0.3M as secured loans continued to be repaid. The balance of secured debt owed to thelender was $2.6M at June 2014, down from $5.1M inJune 2013.

The listed entity, Allied Farmers Ltd, has shareholders’funds of $3.1M. As in the last year’s accounts, the Group accounts still reflect negative equity as the consolidated result does not attribute the fullmarket value of the investment in the NZ Farmers Livestock subsidiary or thesaleyard properties held.

Ok, so your forecast includes the one-off positive impact?

[BFG]

Ok, so your forecast includes the one-off positive impact?

No, I am not taking that into account as it is a one-off. Just talking EPS from normalised activities.