HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[percy]

My own valuation of $1.25 is made up looking at eps of 10cents,nett dividend of 7 cents.PE 12.5.dividend yield 5.6% net.That is based on 463,266,592 shares on issue.
I expect Heartland to improve their credit rating,and to be rerated by broking houses,who will see they are "putting runs on the board" and achieving what they say they will do,so I see further eps growth.They stated eps for the last quarter were 9.7 and with their stated policy for eps growth, 10cps may be realistic.
Banks have the capacity to pay increasing dividends,so HNZ's fully imputed dividend will be an attraction to investors.
HNZ does not have the over exposure to housing the Australian banks have.They also have no exposure to European wholesale funding issues.
Overseas people look at PEG ratio.This is the PE divided by growth.No allowance is made for dividend,In NZ some companies pay very high dividends,so we should factor them in.PEGD.
So my thinking on HNZ.PE 12.5 growth 10% and 7cents dividend.
therefore 12.5 divided by 17 [growth 10 plus dividend 7] gives us .73 This is well under one,so l think my $1.25 is fair value.
These figures have made no allowance for any further acquisitions by Heartland.

[Beagle]

Putting my Friday afternoon happy angle on things I get to $1.20...sorry I can't see more than 10 cps EPS or a PE of more than 12. As previously posted I was realistically at $1.10 in 12 months but the recent new online investment and the company looking for more opportunities that could be EPS accretive, who knows, maybe $1.30 is attainable plus circa 7 cps fully imputed divvy's, (gross value 9.72 cps), total gross possible return 40%)

[noodles]

Attachment 6173



Roger, As much as I would like to see 20% gain this year, I don't think it is going to happen unless we get some corporate action such as a buyback or an acquisition. For the last 18 months, the ceiling on the share price has been the broker targets (see image). I'd expect this to stay the same and I wouldn't expect broker targets to change much as a result of this result.

Well I was wrong. HNZ is now above broker targets.

[percy]

Well I was wrong. HNZ is now above broker targets.

Looks as though we are well positioned!!! lol.

[winner69]

Well I was wrong. HNZ is now above broker targets.

Analyst/brokers targets - you don't much faith in them do you mr noodles?

One or two might increase their targets soon because a bit of an embarrassment having BUY and HOLD recos when price is higher than target

And then after the standing ovation at the ASM they will realise they have got it wrong.

Analyst/broker targets are usually bullish by 15% to 20% - meaning they really think HNZ only worth low 80s. Get real eh

Those three analysts have no idea about HNZ and their targets show. (maybe they believe the muted guidance/messages from HNZ management who obviously don't want the market to set too high expectations for them)

You buying up big here noodles. Still time to get in.

[winner69]

Putting my Friday afternoon happy angle on things I get to $1.20...sorry I can't see more than 10 cps EPS or a PE of more than 12. As previously posted I was realistically at $1.10 in 12 months but the recent new online investment and the company looking for more opportunities that could be EPS accretive, who knows, maybe $1.30 is attainable plus circa 7 cps fully imputed divvy's, (gross value 9.72 cps), total gross possible return 40%)

Will you increase your 10 cents to even 11 after the ASM

Heck 11 cps times 12 is 132 ....plus divies .....cool

[winner69]

Noodles - I see 1 of those 3 brokers has DOWNGRADED Heartland from Buy to Hold over the last month or so.

He got his finger on the pulse eh

[noodles]

Analyst/brokers targets - you don't much faith in them do you mr noodles?

You buying up big here noodles. Still time to get in.

All my purchases were in the 80's. I'm not buying at these levels as nothing has changed since the mid 90's really.

I'm still a little surprised that the recent 10% stake in harmoney has given such a boost in the share price. I remember that before the HER aquisition, there was a bit of a runup. Maybe something else is on the cards. GE finance perhaps? Cap raising at 95c?

[iceman]

All my purchases were in the 80's. I'm not buying at these levels as nothing has changed since the mid 90's really.

I'm still a little surprised that the recent 10% stake in harmoney has given such a boost in the share price. I remember that before the HER aquisition, there was a bit of a runup. Maybe something else is on the cards. GE finance perhaps? Cap raising at 95c?

Or maybe the Harmoney acquisition and the publicity around it put HNZ back on the radar screens for investors and brokers resulting in a more fair valued SP !!

[kizame]

I think the timing is about right with that small stake announcement,still cum dividend,and the fact that it is a growth story on the lookout for a good aquisition,reasonably priced,making a good profit.
Dorchester is probably the only other growth story growing by aquisition,so is exciting stuff really.