FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare.

[samdaman]

And still rising, like its attached to a balloon. Hope nzspeak has reset his stop loss, surely its getting ahead of itself?

Hi I was just talking to a friend about this stock and wondering the exact same thing. I put together a quick valuation on this stock over on my blog. It's rough but I think this stock may have gotten way ahead of itself. I could be wrong though, always looking for ways to improve my valuations.

FPH Valuation

[dagoldtoof]

Bought in at $2.00, close to my heart.........Will hold...

[BlackPeter]

Hi I was just talking to a friend about this stock and wondering the exact same thing. I put together a quick valuation on this stock over on my blog. It's rough but I think this stock may have gotten way ahead of itself. I could be wrong though, always looking for ways to improve my valuations.

FPH Valuation

Quick check with the Financial Times - analysts 12 month targets are between $3.78 and $6.90 (with a median of $5.50). Consensus recommendation "Hold". Personally I think that the trend over the last year was mainly a self full filling prophecy (too many TA-punters on the stock?) and the current price is inflated. However difficult to predict when a bubble will burst - can take weeks, months, years ...

The 2 year trend looks great, but if you take the 5 year picture it looks different - did we just reach the peak?

Discl: Watching - and prepared to buy in at a reasonable price (not now ...).

[MAC]

Hi I was just talking to a friend about this stock and wondering the exact same thing. I put together a quick valuation on this stock over on my blog. It's rough but I think this stock may have gotten way ahead of itself. I could be wrong though, always looking for ways to improve my valuations.

FPH Valuation

That’s interesting Samdaman, I was this morning going through a similar exercise to try and reconcile why Craig’s had picked FPH for 2015 as I cannot resolve a comfortable DCF above $4.55.

I get the two year chart, the momentum and the USD story, and it may be that sentiment carries FPH forward further ?

The brokers have better access to company information than the rest of us and what can seem mysterious can be news yet to manifest, but from a valuation perspective with what’s on the table at present the SP seems increasingly stretched about here unless we are about to see a quantum leap in sales or margin growth or both, are we ?

[Harvey Specter]

Those growth rates might be a bit low as the may get that with currency rate movements alone. What's growth been the last few years? (10% the last 2 years but flat the previous 3 years)

Holding and thinking of locking in half my gains.

[kizame]

Hi I was just talking to a friend about this stock and wondering the exact same thing. I put together a quick valuation on this stock over on my blog. It's rough but I think this stock may have gotten way ahead of itself. I could be wrong though, always looking for ways to improve my valuations.

FPH Valuation

Thats a great blog Sam,keep it up,I like it.

[BFG]

Hi I was just talking to a friend about this stock and wondering the exact same thing. I put together a quick valuation on this stock over on my blog. It's rough but I think this stock may have gotten way ahead of itself. I could be wrong though, always looking for ways to improve my valuations.

FPH Valuation

Hey Sam, good to see you're still going at it and on ST! One point: have you considered the impact of continuef USD strength on earnings? This is a major headwind for FPH and I see no end to it anytime soon.

Cheers,

BFG (ex-Moose)

[bunter]

My system's valuation of FPH is $2.79, similar to yours.

[samdaman]

Hey Sam, good to see you're still going at it and on ST! One point: have you considered the impact of continuef USD strength on earnings? This is a major headwind for FPH and I see no end to it anytime soon.

Cheers,

BFG (ex-Moose)

Not specifically. However my estimates were very large and the value came out quite under the current price I.e their cash flows would need to grow significantly larger YOY to be valued near the $6 mark. The growth in FCFs (at least for my spreadsheet of smoke and mirrors) would need to be around 12% annually. If you're confident on that sort of growth then I can see the stock being fairly valued currently.

Cheers mate
Sam

[BFG]

Not specifically. However my estimates were very large and the value came out quite under the current price I.e their cash flows would need to grow significantly larger YOY to be valued near the $6 mark. The growth in FCFs (at least for my spreadsheet of smoke and mirrors) would need to be around 12% annually. If you're confident on that sort of growth then I can see the stock being fairly valued currently.

Cheers mate
Sam

True. I'd suspect if the fair value estimate is much lower than the actual price then something else is driving the price upwards, hence my suggestion of the USD appreciation over the past 8 months.

Either that or someone with too much capital likes to play the moving average lines upwards, meaning the market is totally inefficient!

Remember, when a stock is priced to perfection, any reason is a reason to sell